Livestock disease incidences remain high across the country, with the cost of veterinary care too prohibitive for most communal and resettlement area farmers. However, the Ministry of Agriculture has reported a decline in tick-borne diseases, indicating a 50 and 40 percent reduction in cattle deaths due to January Disease in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Reportedly, around 500,000 cattle have died from January Disease since 2016. Additionally, human-wildlife conflicts and livestock deaths remain common in some communities bordering wildlife areas such as national parks, conservancies, forests, and hilly and mountainous areas.
Veld fire incidences are reportedly below normal levels this fire season, which officially is from July through October. The Environmental Management Agency reported that 500,000 hectares were destroyed by nearly 4,600 fire incidences as of mid-October, a 50 percent reduction compared to last year. The five most at-risk provinces are Matabeleland North, the three Mashonaland Provinces, and Midlands Province.
Macroeconomic Conditions: In July and August, the ZWL exchange rates appreciated, with a narrowing between the formal and parallel market exchange rates. However, the ZWL has been depreciating since September. At the end of October, the official and parallel markets were trading at around 5,700 and 7,600 per USD, respectively, 6 and 9 percent higher than in September. The ZWL depreciation has also resulted in informal markets rejecting 50 ZWL banknotes, the second highest ZWL note in circulation. The bills only remain acceptable in formal chain retail shops. Additionally, the premiums charged for transacting in ZWL using mobile and electronic modes continue to increase.
The depreciation of the ZWL has driven ZWL price increases for basic food and other commodities. In October, the ZWL price of wheat and bread increased by 25 percent, maize meal and rice increased by 20 and 15 percent, respectively, and sugar and cooking oil rose by nearly 5 percent. However, most households increasingly operate in USD or ZAR, especially in the informal sector. Available estimates suggest that over 80 percent of transactions are conducted in USD. Additionally, poor households, and even some middle and better-off households, increasingly depend on informal sector retailers and open markets who price their goods cheaper and almost exclusively in USD. These retailers and open markets that pay in USD cash are preferentially supplied with goods by producers ahead of formal wholesalers and chain supermarkets that operate mainly on ZWL payments and often pay producers weeks later when the ZWL may have devalued. In October, most formal retail supermarkets noticeably started pegging prices in USD, with ZWL payments effected using prevailing interbank rates that allow for a maximum 10 percent premium. Additionally, at the end of October, the government extended the multicurrency regime to December 2030, allowing for the continued use of the USD in the economy.
In September, ZIMSTAT adopted a new methodology for calculating inflation, which reflects the increased use of USD in the economy. This is the second time the method of calculating inflation has changed this year after introducing the blended (ZWL and USD) inflation rate in March. Under the new methodology, ZIMSTAT reported that consumer inflation eased to 17.8 percent in October. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 2.5 percent in October, the most in four months, after a 1 percent rise in the previous month. However, the cost of living continues to increase, with ZIMSTAT reporting around a 10 percent increase in the ZWL food and total consumption poverty datum lines in October. The Consumer Council of Zimbabwe (CCZ) reported that the ZWL monthly basket for a six-member low-income urban household increased by 6.24 percent in September to almost 2.7 million ZWL (~385 USD), driven mainly by the depreciation of the ZWL.
Markets Update: As of October 8, the government reported that the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) held about 205,700 MT of maize, 48,100 MT of small grains, and 137,600 MT of wheat. Additionally, in September, the government approved the private sector to import maize grain duty-free in anticipation of potential grain shortages through the end of the 2023/24 marketing year and during the 2024/25 marketing year due to the potential negative effects of the El Niño on the 2024 harvest. Households are also allowed to continue importing maize meal duty-free.
In the surplus-producing areas of Zimbabwe, household access to own-produced maize grain and other food stocks continues to be normal, and markets are operating normally. However, some farmers with surplus stocks are reportedly speculatively withholding grain from the market to boost their stocks ahead of the forecast below-average 2023/24 rainy season. In most southern and other deficit-producing areas, own-produced food stocks are depleting or have already run out for poor households as the 2023/24 lean season begins. However, as reliance on purchases increases, access to food on the markets for most poor households is constrained due to high prices and low income. Maize grain is scarce in some markets in these areas, but small grains can still be accessed. To incentivize farmers to grow more drought-resistant small grains better suited to the climate in low rainfall areas, the government has launched an initiative whereby farmers can swap up to 250 kilograms of small grains for an equivalent amount of maize at the GMB. Maize meal remains generally available across most rural and urban markets, except in some of the most remote rural areas.
Maize grain USD prices have remained normal in markets across surplus- and deficit-producing areas, selling between 5-6 USD/17.5 kg bucket (0.23-0.43 USD/kg) in surplus-producing areas, and 6-7 USD (0.34-0.40 USD/kg) in deficit-producing areas. On average, prices in deficit areas are 25 percent higher than in surplus areas. The relatively stable USD prices also reflect the government’s relaxation of grain movement restrictions, unlike during the past few marketing seasons. USD prices for maize meal and most basic food commodities are also relatively stable. However, ZWL prices for grain, maize meal, and other food and non-food commodities are significantly above average and continue to adjust based on changes in the parallel market exchange rates.
Livelihoods and Coping Update: In October, poor households are engaging in typical seasonal income-earning and coping strategies across the country. In the surplus-producing areas, some farmers continue to sell staple grain and other food crops; however, some farmers who may not have surplus stocks also sell their stocks to cover urgent family needs such as school fees or healthcare costs. Some households also engage in non-agricultural casual labor and self-employment, which vary by community but typically include land preparation, construction, digging deep wells, fetching water, gathering firewood, domestic help, and producing and selling beer, bricks, and handicrafts. Household engagement in petty trade is increasing during the off-farm season, which is typical and includes the sale of second-hand clothes, electrical gadgets, household items, and fruits and vegetables. However, the availability of wild produce has been lower than normal this year across most parts of the country, notably the masawu/Indian jujube (Ziziphus mauritiana) fruit in northern Zambezi Valley communities and other areas, and the sale of Mopane worms/amacimbi/madora (Gonimbrasia belina) in the southern and western areas, which are typical sources of income for low-income households in these areas.
Dry-season household and community vegetable production is common across most of the country, but limited access to water affects production primarily in typical semi-arid areas. In some of these areas, vegetables, a key component of poor households’ diets, are being sourced from outside markets, and due to high transportation costs and demand, access by poor households to vegetables at local markets is below normal. Livestock sales are common and increasing across the country, with low-income households mainly selling chickens and sometimes goats, while middle and better-off households sell mainly cattle. However, demand for livestock and livestock products is generally below normal due to liquidity challenges. Barter for grain is also common and increasing in parts of the country, although the terms of trade are generally unfavorable for livestock holders. Other bartered items vary by community but include fish, crafts work, firewood, and thatch grass.
Domestic and international remittances are a notable source of income for some rural and urban households. However, domestic remittances, mainly in USD or as basic food and other commodities, are generally below normal due to ongoing macroeconomic challenges. International remittances, especially from South Africa, are common for a significant proportion of households in the southern districts, although also at below-normal levels. Informal mining of mainly gold is also increasing in Zimbabwe and provides income for some households and communities where the mineral is located. Recurrent power cuts are negatively impacting some livelihoods and markets in urban and rural areas.
Food Consumption: As the 2023/24 lean season sets in, household dietary diversity is declining and is significantly lower compared to the harvest and immediate post-harvest period. Most poor households consume two or fewer meals daily, primarily of staple cereals and vegetables. In typical deficit-producing areas, some poor households purchase most of their food from markets as their own-produced food stocks are low or have already depleted. However, poor household market access for food is being constrained by low-income and high food prices. In most typical surplus-producing areas, food consumption remains good as own-produced food stocks are still available, supplemented by income from crop sales, casual labor, and other sources.
Cholera Outbreak: A cholera outbreak that started in February this year in Chegutu District resurfaced in August in Buhera District, Manicaland Province, the worst affected, and has reportedly spread to 41 districts across the 10 provinces of the country, including the traditional cholera hotspot districts of Chegutu, Chikomba, Chimanimani, Chipinge, Chitungwiza, Chiredzi, Harare, Gokwe North, Marondera, Mazowe, Shamva, Mutare, Murehwa, Mwenezi, Seke and Wedza. As of October 29, the Ministry of Health and Child and Child Care reported 5,964 suspected cases countrywide, 1,055 confirmed cases, 123 suspected cholera deaths, and 43 laboratory-confirmed deaths. The national recovery rate is 97 percent. Poor and inadequate water and sanitation facilities are driving the outbreak.
Humanitarian Assistance: Details regarding government and partner humanitarian assistance plans during the 2023/24 lean season are not yet available. However, the government has announced plans to provide crop input assistance (seed and fertilizer) for the 2023/24 agricultural season tailor-made according to agroclimatic zones. The government plans to target 3.5 million smallholder households, 3 million in rural areas, and 500,000 households in urban/peri-urban areas with agricultural inputs and distributions are ongoing. The government also plans to assist targeted farmers with cotton inputs, with a target of 260,000 hectares split evenly between conventional and conservation farming (pfumvudza/intwasa). Following a high rate of side marketing during the just-ended marketing season, the government reportedly will only target farmers who have sold their cotton to the government after receiving previous crop input assistance.
Current Food Security Outcomes: In October, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes are most likely in resettlement parts of surplus-producing areas as own-produced stocks remain available, supplemented by crop sales and casual labor. In the communal parts of the surplus-producing areas and most urban areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present as households can meet their food needs through their limited own-produced stocks and income opportunities, but the high cost of living limits access to non-food needs. In most deficit-producing areas in the south, east, and west, area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are also present; however, the number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes is slowly increasing as the lean season begins, and households increase their dependence on market purchases, but due to low income-earning opportunities and high transportation and market prices, poor household purchasing power is low.
Source link : https://fews.net/southern-africa/zimbabwe/food-security-outlook/october-2023
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Publish date : 2023-10-01 07:00:00
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