Editor’s note: Russian military-political analyst, expert in the field of strategic security, specialist in the Middle East and Africa Vladimir Bekish. The article expresses the personal opinion of the author and may not coincide with the view of News.Az.
The world watches in horror as the war between Ukraine and Russia unfolds. People are dying, homes and roads are being destroyed, and every day the world speaks of this horror. Meanwhile, the world also shudders at the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs and their allies in the Middle East. People are dying, homes are being obliterated, and tens of thousands of refugees are fleeing from bombings and shootings to neighbouring regions. Every day, the world speaks of this tragedy.
But how much have you heard lately about Sudan and what is happening there?
A civil war has been raging in Sudan for over a year. People are dying, homes and cities are being destroyed, and Khartoum, the capital, lies in ruins. Additionally, there is a real famine with hundreds of thousands of refugees there.
One might assume that the world pays little attention to this conflict because it’s far away in Africa. It might also be perceived as insignificant compared to other ongoing wars – just an internal skirmish. However, Sudan’s population is 50 million people. The Great Nile flows through Sudan. Sudan is the largest Islamic and Arabic-speaking country in Africa. So, what is happening there?
The events in and around Sudan in recent years are unusual, significant, and perhaps instructive. Let’s start with the fact that there are currently two Sudans in Africa: South Sudan and the Republic of Sudan. Before 2011, there was only one Sudan, which was quite large in terms of territory and population. However, from 1989 to 2006, this single Sudan was embroiled in a civil war. The cause of this conflict was the diverse composition of the population, with over 50 different tribes and ethnic groups and a variety of religious beliefs. Most of the population is Muslim, with Christians being the second-largest religious group. Despite this diversity, Sudan was relatively peaceful until 1989, with a vibrant nightlife in Khartoum featuring nightclubs and casinos.
In 1989, a group of military officers led by General Omar al-Bashir declared democracy a sham and staged a coup. The then-president was placed under house arrest, and the coup leaders seized power, promptly declaring Sudan an Islamic state governed by Sharia law. Nightclubs and casinos disappeared overnight, but the southern provinces, where the population is predominantly Christian, openly defied Bashir and, led by Colonel Garang, declared their refusal to comply, which led to a civil war. This war brought significant problems to central Sudan, as the main source of income — oil — was located in the rebellious southern provinces.
In 1993, the military junta dissolved itself, appointing General Bashir as president. In 2006, Bashir attempted to resolve the issue by granting significant autonomy to South Sudan, which eventually led to its de facto independence in 2011 following a referendum recognized by both Sudan and the international community.
Throughout these years, the situation remained volatile. Military dictator-president General Omar al-Bashir maintained excellent relations with Russia and China. In 2006, Colonel Garang, returning from negotiations in Khartoum, died in a helicopter crash, resulting in Salva Kiir, a lifelong rebel, becoming president of South Sudan. Rumour has it that when he first arrived in Juba as vice president, he was bewildered by the sight of a chair in his office, having spent his entire life sitting on fallen trees in the jungle.
The problems with oil production and export continued, as most oil was extracted in South Sudan, but the only pipeline to the export port, Port Sudan, ran through central Sudan. This led to constant disputes and interruptions in oil transport, causing financial difficulties for both countries. Central Sudan quickly raised the transportation costs sevenfold, prompting South Sudan to halt oil deliveries. After a week of no exports and unfulfilled contracts, both countries were forced to negotiate and resume transport. However, central Sudan began siphoning oil from the pipeline, leading South Sudan to stop deliveries again. This cycle of disputes continued for years.
In 2019, a military junta ousted General Bashir and placed him under arrest. Another junta overthrew the government in 2021, and yet another coup occurred in early 2023, sparking a new civil war in central Sudan, which continues despite six declared ceasefires.
Currently, the war involves the regular army fighting against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which were formerly allies but refused to be subordinated to the army, leading to conflict. As of today, there are 11 million Sudanese refugees fleeing to neighbouring countries, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and attempting to reach Europe. Additionally, 400,000 people are experiencing severe hunger, with no access to food, medical care, fuel, or electricity.
Amidst this turmoil, Russia signed an agreement with Sudan in 2017 to build a “logistical support point” for its navy in Port Sudan. Construction has yet to begin due to political instability. Recently, a high-ranking Russian delegation visited Sudan to push for the base’s construction, highlighting the strategic importance of having another Russian military base in Africa.
Local leaders agreed, understanding the benefits of employment, food supplies, and improved living conditions. However, history shows that African nations have often taken support and resources only to later reject foreign influence, as was the case during Soviet times.
It seems that this pattern has repeated itself with many in Africa, including the Russians.
(If you possess specialized knowledge and wish to contribute, please reach out to us at [email protected]).
News.Az
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Publish date : 2024-05-16 07:00:00
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