Since President Biden’s poor performance in the first presidential debate, many media pundits and politicians have raised whether he should step down and allow the Democratic Party to choose another candidate to run against Donald Trump. Worse, a majority of Americans, including a significant portion of Democrats, believe he should resign. Biden, however, refuses to do so.
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Whether you personally feel that he should step down or not, perhaps you have wondered why he is unwilling to consider that possibility. Why does he maintain that he is the best person for the job when so many call his cognitive abilities and strengths as a candidate into question?
Some observers hypothesize that he is driven by ego, like many other politicians before him, and a desire to hold onto power. Of course, these explanations are plausible. However, there are additional possible reasons for President Biden’s optimism about his chances of winning the election and achieving a strong second term despite the fact that he would be 86 by the end of it. Psychological explanations might apply here. Specifically, cognitive biases may play a role.
Ageism Is Real, as Are Age-related Changes
Before I delve into these possible explanations, I would like to acknowledge that ageism is real and harmful. My goal is not to suggest that no one over a certain age is capable of handling complex situations or that Biden should necessarily step down. We all know that people age differently and that there are plenty of very high-functioning people over 80.
Nonetheless, we cannot deny that cognitive abilities decline with age, particularly certain kinds of abilities such as processing speed and memory. Thus, it seems reasonable to question whether someone of Biden’s age (and Trump’s too, for that matter) is best suited to take on what one could argue is the most difficult job in the world. So, why does Biden seem unwilling to consider that he might not be up to the task?
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Psychological Biases
One explanation that seems particularly relevant here is unrealistic optimism, which affects many people regardless of age. This concept, which psychologists have studied for decades, refers to the tendency to view one’s future outcomes as more positive than is likely to be true. For example, people tend to predict that they will be more successful and less likely to fall prey to negative events (such as serious illness) than they have evidence to believe.
This tendency has positive effects on our emotions in that it’s easier to feel good when we believe the future is bright. But it can also have negative effects, causing us to take unnecessary risks or fail to plan for the future. Why save for the future or quit smoking when you think you will be very wealthy and live a long life?
Thus, it is possible that President Biden’s sunny view of his future accomplishments is partially affected by this bias. He is likely thinking more about his many past successes than failures and assuming that all will be well.
In addition, there is evidence that individuals tend to view their own outcomes as likely to be better than those of peers. Not only do we think we will be fortunate, but we believe we will be more fortunate than others. Thus, it makes sense that Biden views himself as more likely to beat Trump than other possible candidates.
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Like most people, Biden might also fall prey to the overconfidence effect, a bias that makes us feel more confident in our performance than is warranted. This tendency will not surprise you if you’ve heard of the recent poll indicating that almost half of men believed they could land a passenger plane safely in an emergency situation. Humans tend to inflate their capabilities.
There is also a relevant bias that specifically affects older people: a tendency to underestimate errors. A recent study documented that older people were less likely to acknowledge mistakes made in a computerized test than younger people. It appears that they did not recognize that they had erred. This finding has implications for older people’s judgments of their own abilities. It might, for example, be why some elderly individuals insist they can drive even as their children think it’s time to take away the car keys. Though it’s possible that Biden was merely trying to project a positive image when he told a reporter he thought he’d done well immediately after the debate, he may well have overestimated his own performance.
A Common Human Problem
Though disagreements about Biden’s fitness as a candidate are playing out on the national stage, they are not all that different from those we face in our own families. Many of us “of a certain age” have dealt with relatives unwilling to acknowledge their diminished state. It is tricky to decide for someone else when they can no longer perform well at a job or live independently. Very often, elderly individuals have great confidence in their ability to continue as they always have. They fail to recognize what others see. And given the evidence that people are working much longer than in previous decades, it is likely that Americans will face these difficult decisions more and more frequently.
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Perhaps these common experiences are more similar to Biden’s situation than people recognize. Granted, many factors likely influence Biden’s decision to seek reelection, but we should not forget that politicians are human beings susceptible to the same biases as everyone else.
References
Dunning, D., Griffin, D., Milojkovic, J., & Ross, L. (1990). The overconfidence effect in social prediction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. 58. 568-81. 10.1037/0022-3514.58.4.568.
Murman DL. (2015). The impact of age on cognition. Semin Hear. Aug;36(3):111-21. doi: 10.1055/s-0035-1555115. PMID: 27516712; PMCID: PMC4906299.
Shepperd, J. A., Carroll, P., Grace, J., & Terry, M. (2002). Exploring the causes of comparative optimism. Psychologica Belgica, 42(1/2), 65-98.
Shepperd, J.A., Waters, E., Weinstein, N.D., & Klein, W.M. (2015). A primer on unrealistic optimism. Curr Dir Psychol Sci. Jun;24(3):232-237. doi: 10.1177/0963721414568341. PMID: 26089606; PMCID: PMC4467896.
University of Iowa. (2018, August 3). Study: Older people less apt to recognize they’ve made a mistake. ScienceDaily. Retrieved July 1, 2024 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180803114752.htm
Weir, K. (2023, March 1). Ageism is one of the last socially acceptable prejudices. Psychologists are working to change that. Monitor on Psychology, 54(2). https://www.apa.org/monitor/2023/03/cover-new-concept-of-aging
Wessel, JR, Dolan, KA, & Hollingworth, A. (2018). A blunted phasic autonomic response to errors indexes age-related deficits in error awareness. Neurobiology of Aging, 71, 13-20. ISSN 0197-4580. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neurobiolaging.2018.06.019.
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Publish date : 2024-07-02 20:38:05
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