The 2024 BRICS summit in Russia will unfold amid global tensions, highlighting South Africa’s complex position within the alliance.
×In a nutshell
Tensions rise as the 2024 BRICS summit in Russia approaches
South Africa faces scrutiny over its ties with authoritarian members
Coalition government dynamics may reshape South Africa’s BRICS stance
The 2024 BRICS summit, to be held in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24, will take place amid an increasingly tense geopolitical atmosphere. The crises in the Middle East and Ukraine are likely to dominate the agenda, as member states explore the future of the alliance and their nations’ roles within it. During the 2023 BRICS summit, the original members from which the axis takes its name (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) welcomed new members into the fold: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.
South Africa’s controversial bedfellows
Some in the international community have expressed mixed reactions to South Africa’s position within BRICS. Concerns are rife about the bilateral relations South Africa has built with authoritarian BRICS members such as Russia, China and now Iran.
Since Pretoria failed to condemn Moscow following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, South Africa’s relationship with Russia has come under scrutiny. Mr. Ramaphosa’s administration has been criticized by American diplomats as well as South African civil society for its close ties with Russia, but has still maintained its “non-aligned” posture. In defiance of the ANC’s position toward the Kremlin, and before becoming its coalition partner, the leader of the main opposition party in South Africa, the Democratic Alliance (DA), undertook a fact-finding trip to Kiev, demonstrating solidarity with the people of Ukraine.
In the leadup to the 2023 summit, the African National Congress (ANC)-led administration under President Cyril Ramaphosa reiterated its loyalty to the BRICS alliance by again refusing to condemn Russia. He went so far as to question the basis of the International Criminal Court (ICC)’s order to arrest Russian leader Vladimir Putin on South African soil if he attended the summit. South Africa’s diplomats controversially claimed that the ICC’s order interfered with South Africa’s sovereignty, and arresting him would be a “declaration of war.” Under pressure from civil society organizations, the press and opposition parties, President Ramaphosa eventually withdrew Mr. Putin’s invitation to attend the summit.
South Africa showcases its clout with BRICS expansion
During the 2023 summit, South Africa emerged not as a junior partner surrounded by global giants in the expanding BRICS club, but as a major player. Pretoria used its role as host of the summit to make it clear that the country is willing to defy Western powers, and will openly maintain close ties with Russia even amid Western sanctions against the country.
The 2023 summit was also significant because gates were opened for additional members. Iran’s presence raised questions about the direction of alliance, as it implied its goal may have moved beyond building an alternative and representative global trade system – toward challenging United States foreign policy. The new member states are not known for their open competitive democratic systems, but this seems not to have concerned the ANC-led government. President Ramaphosa lauded the inclusion of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE and Ethiopia in the bloc as “a new chapter” in building a fairer world.
×Facts & figures
BRICS expansion 2023-2024
×Facts & figures
New members boost global reach
Recent global tensions have further distanced South Africa from Western powers. Pretoria brought Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on charges that the country might be involved in acts of genocide in Gaza. This move was in direct defiance of the U.S., who saw the court route as unfavorable toward attaining lasting peace in the region. South Africa’s official opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, also opposed the government’s stance on Israel, which they saw as hostile and condoning the militant Hamas.
Domestic pressure creates uncertainty about BRICS summit
The ANC entered South Africa’s recent election, held on May 29, carrying this baggage. Yet, instead of openly engaging with different stakeholders on geopolitical issues, the ruling party was resolute and uncompromising in defying what it saw as bullying by Western powers and the unfounded sewing of discord by local civil society organizations and opposition parties. The election resulted in the ANC losing its majority and being forced to join with the opposition Democratic Alliance as a coalition partner, as well as other small opposition parties.
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The 2024 BRICS+ summit will be the first since the ANC lost full control. As a senior partner holding the coalition government together, the Democratic Alliance will demand more accountability from the ANC on contentious issues such as BRICS’s expansion to include Iran. While the ANC retains key and influential portfolios like foreign relations and defense, the DA’s West-leaning policy outlook will be difficult to reconcile with the direction the ANC seems to want to lead BRICS.
Pretoria’s decisions will now bear the signature of more than one political party. This signals a new era in foreign policy. The upcoming BRICS summit in Kazan will witness a different South Africa.
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Scenarios
Likely: More pressure on the ANC to lean West
As far as the ANC-led government is concerned, there will be some continuity of South Africa’s foreign relations posture. However, details about which areas will remain the same and which will see changes, are scant. With its gambles on foreign relations issues leading up to the May elections, if it demonstrates continuity on foreign relations, the ANC will appear as if it is failing to heed the voice of the electorate. The people’s rejection of the party’s go-it-alone approach to policy is part of what resulted in the coalition government in the first place.
The DA will push for the ANC and other coalition partners to align more with Western stances on the war in Ukraine and other global disputes. South Africa’s positioning within the BRICS bloc and its relationships with other BRICS members will continue to be under the spotlight.
The 2024 BRICS+ summit will see a subdued South Africa, as the domestic political system settles after the seismic elections that will inevitably influence the country’s foreign policy. With multiple voices now engaging on foreign policy in the coalition government, it is unclear whether the tide will turn toward the West, or whether South Africa will continue to improvise as BRICS expands.
Possible: Other BRICS members use South Africa’s outlook as a blueprint
Other BRICS members will adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess how South Africa will forge ahead in the alliance, despite its political shifts and growing domestic pressure to include civil society voices in BRICS processes.
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Source link : https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/brics-summit-2024-south-africa/
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Publish date : 2024-10-11 06:00:00
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