Rwanda could boost its regional and global image by exploiting a key security vacuum in a growing number of African countries disillusioned with Western or multilateral partners, security experts say.
A new report by Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an independent body that collects and analyses data on violent conflicts and protests around the world, says the space for multilateral peacekeeping is likely to shrink in the coming years, with several peacekeeping drawdowns completed or underway in Africa.
In Africa, Rwanda’s role has become more attractive, especially to countries that don’t want to go down the alternative route of tapping Russian military and security support, which could put them in the middle of a tussle with the West.
“These emerging security gaps have been increasingly filled by new armed actors and forms of cooperation, including private military companies, local self-defence groups, and regional partnerships.
“Having long contributed to multilateral peacekeeping missions, Rwanda has positioned itself as an alternative security partner, sending bilateral missions across the continent” the expert report said.
The gap, occasioned by insurgencies or other security threats such as rebel movements, has helped to elevate Rwanda whose military, the Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF), has already been deployed in some countries to help quell the chaos.
These countries include the Central African Republic (CAR) and Mozambique. Rwanda is currently discussing a similar arrangement with Benin.
In CAR, where security institutions have been weakened by years of fighting, the Russian private military company Wagner has been deployed to help protect the government officials. But it is the Rwandan forces deployed there that are helping to stabilise the country. In Mozambique, Rwandan forces have been helping to liberate land seized by insurgents since 2007, allowing business to resume, including natural gas projects.
This dividend comes amid growing criticism of the failures of United Nations peacekeeping and Western military involvement on the continent. Some countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Niger have since severed ties with former Western military partners.
But the blame for failure does not lie solely with Western militaries or UN peacekeepers. In fact, countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, which blamed the UN for the failure, also rejected the regional force provided under the East African Community, ending its mandate in December 2023 after just one year. This may be a sign that multinational forces in general haven’t helped provide solutions, and that bilateral arrangements between countries may be more attractive.
“Rwanda’s foreign military engagement illustrates the country’s shifting standing in Africa and beyond.
“The multilateral and bilateral deployments in the DRC and Mozambique have generally strengthened Rwanda’s status across the continent as a regional security force, bolstering diplomatic relations with the international community, working toward African integration, and pushing back against non-African interventions,” the report said.
Rwanda is likely to continue with this policy, going by public pronouncements by officials in Kigali, providing a strategic and economic advantage, according to the report, The Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) operations abroad signal a Shift in Rwanda’s Regional Standing.
Rwanda is already planning to send more troops to support its bilateral mission in Cabo Delgado, extending its stay from 2021 when it first sent RDF to the Cabo Delgado province.
This is because joint Rwanda-Mozambique mission is facing increasing violence from insurgents in 2024 compared to 2023. The Southern Africa Development Community forces in Mozambique are also pulling out, leaving potential gaps.
There is, however, a problem for Rwanda’s security exploits abroad. Its main Achilles heel, according to experts, has been its military support to M23, an armed rebel group bent on ousting the establishment in Kinshasa, which has put it on a collision course with Western powers such as the USA and the UN.
“Rwanda’s deployment into the DRC has strained relations with Kinshasa, Gitega, and Western governments. Burundi and Rwanda’s borders remain closed with frequent critical rhetoric, amid growing Western hesitation to renew support for Rwandan military operations,” the report says.
Both Rwanda and the DRC have signalled their intention to discuss diplomatic solution. But ceasefires agreed on between M23 and the Congolese forces have often been invariably broken. Angola has been mediating the long-term peace between Rwanda and the DRC, which could help diminish violence.
According to the report, the growing security gap in Africa and the threat of Russian influence will likely continue to make the RDF a preferred alternative for multilateral and bilateral military cooperation in the region.
The recent failures of Russian mercenaries, the Wagner Group, have left a bitter taste in the mouths of some African countries.
The most recent case was in July 2024, when the Malian regime requested the services of the Wagner Group to fight alongside its army in what was referred to as a “stabilisation operation” in the West African country’s northeastern town of Tinzaouaten, near the Algerian border.
However, tactical errors led to the force being ambushed by militants from the al-Qaeda affiliate Jama’at Nustrat al-Islam Wal-Muslimin, and more than 80 Wagner personnel and over 40 Malian soldiers were killed, according to reports.
Since the death of Wagner’s leader, Yevnegny Prigozhin, last year, Moscow has attempted to take over the group’s operations by establishing the Africa Corps, a Ministry of Defence-controlled project designed to operate like Wagner.
While Rwanda maintains that the military operations are motivated by its history and commitment to promoting international peace and security, analysts link the deployments to a growing diplomatic rapprochement between Kigali and its Western allies, particularly France.
For example, France reportedly promoted the idea of Paris and other European capitals funding the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) operations in Mozambique.
In December 2022, the European Union announced funding of €20 million ($21.9 million) to support the continued deployment of the RDF in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado Province.
“Rwandan actions also slotted nicely into Paris’s new strategy of ‘leading from behind’ and they followed on the heels of Macron’s meeting in Paris with both Kagame and Nyusi in mid-May 2021. This, in turn, was followed by Macron’s visit to Kigali,” noted Researchers Brendon J Cannon and Federico Donelli in their paper, Rwanda’s Military Deployments in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Neoclassical Realist Account, published last year.
Donelli told TheEastAfrican that, “It is common for small countries with ambitions to gain international visibility or prestige to invest their financial and political efforts in niche areas.
Rwanda’s military deployment in African crisis contexts is a tool of diplomacy.
“At the same time, there are aspects of it that are instead traceable to its post-genocide political path, particularly in the role that the military plays within the country, including political power structures,” he said, adding that one of Rwanda’s most ambitious goals is to gain credibility and support from key extra-regional players.
“Being able to present itself as a reliable partner in countering Islamist insurgencies is an excellent business card. At the same time, in the coming years, more and more extra-regional players may likely decide to rely on African security forces instead of launching military operations on African soil,” said Donelli.
Rwanda’s peacekeeping contributions abroad have grown from a deployment of just 150 soldiers in 2004 to the AU Mission in Sudan (AMIS) to being the fourth largest contributor of UN peacekeeping personnel globally, and the largest in Africa, with 5,894 personnel by March 2024.
Source link : https://nation.africa/africa/news/rwanda-peacekeeping-abroad-4785432
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Publish date : 2024-10-04 10:45:00
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