The cocktail created by Islamism and what we might term Russo-Chinese Axisism threaten not just regional security but also pose substantial risks to European nations on the other side of the Mediterranean.
Russia’s aspirations in North Africa have grown more aggressive since the assassination of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the resulting reorganization has consolidated a wide network of mercenary outfits under the tight control of the Kremlin. Many are engaged in the plunder of the continent’s natural resources — Kremlin-linked groups helped smuggle more than $2.5bn in gold in the 18 months following its all-out invasion of Ukraine.
This post-Prigozhin leadership structure has reoriented mercenary activities across Africa, pivoting from semi-autonomous operations to a more directly state-aligned, GRU-run force now solely focused on advancing Moscow’s strategic interests. Its head is Gen Andrey Averyanov, head of the GRU’s Unit 29155, which organized the botched assassination of the former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury in 2018.
Countries like Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, and Mali offer military support to authoritarian regimes in exchange for resources and influence. The transformation of Russian mercenary companies into a more state-centric paramilitary tool highlights Moscow’s desire to solidify its foothold in the region and poses a serious threat to NATO.
While Russia projects military power, China’s influence is built on economic clout. Beijing has leveraged its Belt and Road Initiative to fund infrastructure projects across Africa, particularly in countries like Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco.
Ports, highways, and energy infrastructure are essential to secure China’s supply chains, but they also offer Beijing strategic leverage. And with China’s growing economic involvement comes a more assertive military presence as Beijing uses its influence to expand its African footprint.
This dual approach — economic investment underpinned by military force — allows China to cultivate long-term influence in North Africa. The region’s strategic importance for global trade, particularly in energy and raw materials, makes it a key theater for Beijing’s ambitions and presents a long-term challenge to Western influence in the region.
At the same time, North Africa faces a renewed threat from Islamist extremism. The power vacuums in countries like Libya and Mali, encouraged and often worsened by brutal Russian intervention, have provided fertile ground for groups like Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and affiliates of Islamic State to regroup and expand. Such organizations, often operating in remote areas beyond the control of central governments, exploit local grievances to recruit fighters and establish de facto control over territories.
For NATO, the resurgence of Islamist extremism presents a dual threat. First, there is the direct risk of terrorist attacks spilling over into Europe, with Northern Africa serving as a launch pad for such operations. Second, the region’s instability creates further opportunities for Russia and China to expand their influence by offering security assistance to fragile regimes, eroding Western influence even more. Instability also feeds migration, with large numbers of people crossing the Mediterranean, which causes significant political upheaval in West European countries.
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In response to these growing challenges, NATO must adopt a proactive strategy to secure its southern flank. This strategy should address the Russian and Chinese presence while at the same time countering the resurgence of Islamist groups.
This can be achieved by deepening partnerships with countries in North Africa that are both strategically positioned and open to collaboration with the West. Morocco and Tunisia stand out as key partners with long-standing security relationships with Western nations.
As a critical player in the Arab world, Egypt also offers NATO a potential partner in countering both state and non-state threats. Egypt’s geographic position at the nexus of Africa and the Middle East, coupled with its control of the Suez Canal, makes it vital in securing Mediterranean trade routes and countering foreign influence.
Expanding joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and capacity-building programs with these nations could enhance their resilience against both Russian and Chinese influence.
To address the threat of resurgent Islamist groups, NATO should also focus on strengthening counterterrorism cooperation with regional powers like Algeria, which has a robust military and a history of successfully combating extremist groups. Algeria’s counterterrorist experience could be leveraged through NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue framework, enhancing collaborative efforts to combat the spread of jihadist movements.
The alliance should also be prepared to confront the hybrid warfare tactics employed by Russia and China. This includes improving the cyber defense capabilities of North African partners and countering disinformation campaigns that undermine Western influence. Providing training and resources to local governments on how to detect and neutralize these hybrid threats will be crucial in securing the region.
The Mediterranean remains a critical artery for global trade, and NATO must bolster its naval presence to secure vital sea lanes. By enhancing maritime cooperation with Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt, NATO can better monitor Russian naval activities and ensure the Mediterranean does not become a contested zone or a vector for terrorist attacks.
This includes conducting joint naval exercises, improving intelligence sharing on maritime threats, and increasing NATO’s visibility in the region through port visits and coordinated patrols.
The strategic dynamics of North Africa have reached a critical point, with Russia and China expanding their influence as Islamist extremism surges across the region.
By deepening partnerships with key North African nations, enhancing counterterrorism cooperation, and strengthening its maritime presence in the Mediterranean, NATO can safeguard its southern flank and ensure the region does not become a staging ground for future threats to Europe.
The time for action is now before these converging risks further destabilize North Africa and spill into Europe.
Doug Livermore is the National Vice President for the Special Operations Association of America, Senior Vice President for Solution Engineering at the CenCore Group, and the Deputy Commander for Special Operations Detachment – Joint Special Operations Command in the North Carolina Army National Guard. In addition to his role as the Director of Engagements for the Irregular Warfare Initiative, he is the National Director of External Communications for the Special Forces Association, Director of Development of the Corioli Institute, and serves and the Board of Directors and Chair of the Advocacy Committee for No One Left Behind.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are the author’s and do not represent official US Government, Department of Defense, or Department of the Army positions.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the position or views of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis.
Europe’s Edge
CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America.
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Source link : https://cepa.org/article/natos-southern-front-malign-influence-and-extremism-in-north-africa/
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Publish date : 2024-10-17 16:19:45
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