Agricultural labor availability and wages: The availability of agricultural labor is close to average due to the multiple planting attempts and weeding, except in the semiarid central areas where the prospects for a good season are minimal. However, remuneration for agricultural labor is below average due to the impacts of past shocks, such as Cyclone Freddy’s impacts in the southern and central areas, and the prospects of a below average harvest for middle and better off households. In Cabo Delgado, the recent attacks and increased tension are affecting agricultural activities that had resumed in the districts of Macomia, Quissanga, Mocímboa da Praia, Muidumbe, Ancuabe, Metuge, Mecúfi, and Chiúre, among others.
Conflict and flooding in Cabo Delgado: After a significant reduction in conflict events in 2023 as a result of Operation Vulcão IV, which aimed to restore stability in the north, January 2024 began with a series of attacks in the districts of Macomia, Muidimbe, and Mocímboa da Praia. Later, at the end of January and beginning of February, there were reports of insurgent movements to the south of Cabo Delgado, namely in the districts of Quissanga, Metuge, Ancuabe, Mecúfi, and Chiúre, some of which reached as far as the Lúrio River on the border with Nampula province, ambushing civilians and security forces along the way. Sporadic attacks and movements by Non-State Armed Groups (NSAG) in areas that were relatively safe have led to a new wave of IDPs, counteracting the trend of IDPs returning to their places of origin. Increased insecurity in parts of Cabo Delgado province has forced humanitarian organizations to suspend humanitarian assistance in some districts, such as Quissanga and Chiúre, and assistance suspension may occur in additional districts due to the high volatility of the current situation. Suspension of assistance may persist until the security situation becomes favorable.
According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM) Movement Alert Report 101, between 22 December 2023 to 25 February 2024, sporadic attacks and fear of attacks by NSAG in Macomia, Chiure, Mecufi, Mocimboa da Praia, and Muidumbe triggered the cumulative displacement 71,681 individuals. Within the reporting period, attacks and the fear of attacks by NSAG in Chiúre (Ocua, Mazeze, Chiúre Velho posto) led to the displacement of 54,534 individuals. The affected families have sought refuge in displacement sites and host communities in Chiúre, Metuge districts in Cabo Delgado province and Eráti in Nampula province. Arrivals of displaced families have been mapped across villages of Chiúre, Mecúfi, Metuge, Meconta, Quissanga, Mueda, Montepuez, Macomia, Muidumbe, Ancuabe, Ibo, Cidade de Pemba, Eráti (in Nampula province), and Cidade de Nampula, among other places. Due to prevailing security concerns in the region reported by displaced families, intended durations of stay in displacement sites and host communities remain uncertain. Movements in the region continue to be dynamic within districts and between Cabo Delgado and Nampula.
These attacks are particularly worrying because they occur during the peak of the ongoing rainy season when nearly the entire population is engaged in agricultural activities to produce their own food. Due to attacks and fear of attacks, the population is being forced to abandon their farms to find safe places where they live as IDPs and rely on aid for food.
In addition to the conflict, at the end of January, the river basins of the Megaruma and Messalo rivers exceeded their respective Alert levels and overflowed, causing flooding in low-lying areas and severe damage to roads. Heavy rains continue in several parts of Cabo Delgado, flooding farms in low-lying areas of several districts and causing frequent road closures and restricting traffic, particularly between Macomia and Awasse and between Chiúre and Mecúfi. In Mueda and Macomia, heavy rains and flooding destroyed infrastructure, including shelters for IDPs in resettlement centers. With heavy rains persisting and more rainfall forecast, impacts are being assessed. However, FSC partners have been assisting new IDPs in several reception locations where security conditions are favorable and as available resources permit.
The combination of the effects of recent attacks, heavy rains, and localized floods ended up affecting, to some extent, the pace of recovery of basic livelihoods that had been ongoing since last year, including the resumption of agricultural activities in areas that reported relative security. Ultimately, this situation is causing needs to increase, requiring the humanitarian community to strengthen its response capacity.
Maize grain, maize meal, and rice prices: In January 2024, maize grain prices remained stable, albeit well above the five-year and last year’s average. Maize grain prices averaged 30 percent higher than last year. The highest variation occurred in Maputo, where the January maize price was 50 percent above last year, and the smallest variation was in Massinga, where the January maize price was 10 percent above last year’s. Compared to the five-year average, January 2024 maize grain prices were between 10 to 45 percent higher except in Montepuez, Cabo Delgado province, where maize grain prices were the same as the five-year average. The stability in Montepuez is due to the fact that maize grain prices in the last five years have been very high because of the conflict, but since last year, a relative improvement in the security situation, including the return of IDPs to their places of origin and resumption of some agricultural activities, have resulted in the stabilization of food prices.
Rice and maize meal prices remained relatively stable in most monitored markets between December 2023 and January 2024, but well above the five-year average. Rice prices in January 2024 were 5 to 10 percent higher than last year’s respective prices, except in Maputo, where prices remained stable. Compared to the five-year average, rice prices in January 2024 were, on average, 30 percent higher. The highest variation was in Nampula, where the price of rice was 40 percent higher, while the smallest variation was in Massinga, where the price was 17 percent higher. Maize meal prices in January 2024 were stable compared to last year, but about 15 percent higher on average than the five-year average. The highest variation was recorded in Massinga, where the price of maize meal was 30 percent higher, while the lowest variation was in Maputo, where the price was 10 percent higher. In Montepuez, the price of maize meal remained stable compared to the five-year average.
The atypically high prices are likely due to a below-average harvest caused by the impacts of multiple shocks that affected the country during the 2022/2023 agricultural season, and the cumulative effect of extreme events over the past four to five years, a situation that is unlikely to improve due to the prospects of a below-average harvest this year.
High food prices are making it even more difficult for thousands of poor households to buy food from markets following the depletion of their meager food reserves and expected poor harvest this year due to the effects of El Niño, especially in the semiarid southern and central areas.
Ongoing self-employment activities: Faced with the prospects of a below-average harvest and high, above-average prices, most of the poorest households are seeking alternate means of income in order to buy food at local markets. Some of the poorest households in rural areas continue to earn income through the sale of crops, albeit at below-average prices due to the expected below-average season. Livestock sales are occurring at typical levels, and are more of an option for animal-owning (typically middle and better off) households, although some of the poorest households own small animals (including chickens, ducks, and in some areas, goats and pigs) and sell them when needed. Most poor households earn some income by burning and selling charcoal, a popular activity throughout the country. Other income-earning options include producing and selling traditional beverages, collecting and selling forest products such as straw and firewood, piles for house construction, and reeds. Members of households with crafts skills earn money by selling items like wooden spoons, sieves, pestles, and crockery, or by producing clay bricks. Poor households also sell cashew nuts and other seasonal products, such as watermelon, though availability this year is below average due to irregular rainfall. However, in the semiarid and remote areas of the country, opportunities for poor households to generate income are limited. To compensate for the loss of income, poor households in these areas are expanding self-employment activities, but increased competition and lack of a market limit income levels. Some members of poor households in areas with poor production migrate to major urban centers, and often illegally to South Africa, to earn income and send remittances; however, remittances from South Africa have been consistently lower in recent years due to employment difficulties.
Avian influenza: The bird flu that was officially detected in Mozambique in October 2023 is under control, and Mozambique could be declared a bird flu-free country next April, according to the National Directorate of Livestock Development (DNDP) in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER). In October 2023, the DNDP suspended the import of live domestic and wild birds as well as poultry products from South Africa following the outbreak of bird flu. The measure caused a quick increase of up to 45 percent in the price of eggs in southern Mozambique. According to the DNDP, the last case of bird flu in Mozambique was recorded in October last year in Inhambane province, when more than 40,000 egg-laying birds were slaughtered. Currently, in addition to nationally produced chicken and eggs, the national domestic market relies on eggs imported from neighboring Eswatini, which has caused prices to fall to typical levels.
Nutrition: A smart survey conducted by SETSAN in April/May 2023 showed a GAM prevalence of 16 percent in Palma. With the IPC projections of Critical (GAM 15 to 29.9 percent) outcomes for Palma for the period (October 2023 to March 2024), GAM prevalence has likely deteriorated further, albeit within the (15-29.9 percent) range. This outcome has likely been exacerbated by depleted food reserves resulting in dependence on market purchases, compounded by below-average incomes for very poor and poor households reducing purchasing power, hence compromising food access and, consequently, dietary diversity. Doa, Mutarara, and Milange had GAM prevalences of 6, 5.3, and 5.1 percent, respectively, according to the SMART survey, and the GAM levels are currently likely to have increased to Alert (GAM 5-9.9 percent). With some very poor households in Doa and Mutarara already adopting Crisis strategies, Serious (GAM 10-14.9percent) outcomes may occur.
Humanitarian food assistance: In January 2024, FSC partners provided humanitarian food assistance to approx 21,491 people in Cabo Delgado and Niassa, representing around 2.4 percent of the total people targeted. 61 percent of beneficiaries are from Cabo Delgado and 39 percent are from Niassa. The World Food Programme and Iris Global were the lead food distribution organizations and covered 8 districts in Cabo Delgado and 2 in Niassa. Beneficiaries received rations equivalent to 39 percent of their monthly kilocalorie needs. Around 61 percent of humanitarian assistance was in-kind, and the remainder was via cash. From May this year, humanitarian food assistance will be discontinued in Nampula. Regarding agriculture and livelihoods response, since October 2023 to January 2024 (main Agricultural campaign) FSL partners would have assisted approx 241,726 people in Cabo Delgado alone (92,468 in January), of which around 15 percent are from host/local communities, 13 percent are internally displaced people, and the remainder are mixed households.
The deterioration in the security situation is affecting humanitarian actions with reports of temporary suspension, particularly in Quissanga and Chiúre, which could be resumed at any time, depending on the dynamics on the ground. On the other hand, limited funds to respond to ever-increasing needs are forcing the World Food Program (WFP) to reduce humanitarian food assistance in 2024. In fact, during the current lean season, no humanitarian food assistance is anticipated in the districts of Balama, Ibo, Meluco, Palma, Namuno, Pemba, and Mecúfi, and the list may increase in the post-harvest period. According to the FSC, it is estimated that around 341,000 people in need of assistance will not be covered during the lean season, and around 470,300 people in need will not be covered in the post-harvest period. With limited funds, WFP is adopting some targeting and prioritization principles that include prioritizing the most vulnerable, prioritizing districts of return, mitigating push and pull factors, concentrating resources for cost-effectiveness, incorporating seasonality considerations, and implementing evidence-driven adjustments.
Under the anticipatory actions (AA) framework, which aims to mitigate the impacts of below average rainfall in Gaza, Tete, and Sofala provinces, WFP, FAO, INAM, INGD, MADER, and ICS (Instituto de Comunicação Social) are reaching around 270,000 people with early warning messages. INGD (in partnership with WFP and FAO) has been providing drought-tolerant seeds via e-voucher and in kind for around 3,020 households in the districts of Guija and Chibuto since October 2023. Under the same framework, INAs and WFP have been carrying out cash transfers equivalent to MZN 2,500 per household for around 11,800 households for 3 months (which will be finalized by March 2024) in 9 districts (5 in Gaza, 2 in Tete, and 2 in Sofala).”
Current Food Security Outcomes
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present in some areas that were most affected by Cyclone Freddy, including Mutarara and Doa districts in Tete province in the central region, where the poorest households have not yet recovered from the cyclone’s impacts. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also present in Changara district in Tete province, where the poorest households are facing difficulties accessing enough food due to the rapid depletion of last season’s food reserves, above-average food prices, and the prospects of a failed harvest this year. In these areas, delayed start of the season, erratic rainfall, and above-average temperatures associated with El Niño are delaying the availability of green and other seasonal foods, such as watermelon, that could help minimize food consumption deficits. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are also present in the semiarid and remote areas of the south, where many poor households depleted their food stocks shortly after last year’s harvests and have since relied on market purchases to access food. However, low income and well above-average prices for staple foods are hampering adequate access to food, particularly for poor and very poor households.
In Cabo Delgado, the resurgence of attacks in previously pacified areas since the end of last year and the beginning of this year, as well as the movement of NSAG further south of the province, is counteracting the pace of recovery that was expected with the resumption of agricultural activities during the current rainy and agricultural season. Indeed, the recent attacks are creating new waves of IDPs, who, along with returnees, are posing enormous challenges to the humanitarian community’s ability to respond. Needs remain high, including the availability of shelter and food. Acute food insecurity is likely worsening from Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Quissanga, Mecúfi, and Chiúre districts, caused by the interruption of humanitarian assistance due to increased insecurity and/or limited funding. Acute food insecurity is also likely worsening from Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Ibo and Ancuabe districts, where humanitarian food assistance is not anticipated in 2024 unless additional resources are mobilized.
Throughout the remainder of the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist, mainly due to the negative impacts of Cyclone Freddy that affected production in 2023, resulting in a rapid depletion of food reserves, reduced income generation opportunities, and above-average increases in food prices, and the impacts of El Niño this year. These combined shocks are hindering access to food, including green food from the ongoing season. However, most households are still able to meet their minimum food needs and are facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes across the country.
Source link : https://fews.net/southern-africa/mozambique/food-security-outlook/february-2024
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Publish date : 2024-02-10 08:00:00
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