On November 6, 2023, Morocco announced an initiative aimed at providing Sahelian countries, particularly Mali, Chad, Niger, and Burkina Faso, with maritime access to the Atlantic Ocean. Through this initiative, Morocco seeks to enhance its influence in the Sahel-Saharan region and offset its unsuccessful bid to join the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Despite continuous efforts to leverage ECOWAS’s fragmentation, marked by the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, Morocco has yet to convene an alternative regional bloc that encompasses 85 million people.
Reshaping the Sahel and Sub-Saharan Regions
Some believe that Morocco’s initiative is primarily aimed at countering Algeria, which has been working diligently to isolate Morocco by collaborating with its allies to establish a small-scale-Maghreb Union, limited to Tunisia, Libya, and Algeria, which was announced in November 2023. This perspective is plausible, given that Algeria is likely wary of the potential repercussions of linking the Sahel region to the Atlantic, particularly on its interests in neighboring countries like Chad and Mali, which it has long considered its economic backyard.
Morocco, on the other hand, appears to aspire to a central role in reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Sahel and Sub-Saharan regions—areas currently experiencing a wave of coups driven primarily by worsening economic and social conditions. The Atlantic Initiative is expected to contribute to the consolidation of political stability in the region, which could strengthen Morocco’s influence in Chad and improve its relations with Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
Additionally, Morocco hopes that the initiative will enable it to more effectively address shared security challenges, such as cross-border terrorist networks and irregular migration flows. By employing soft power strategies—such as training programs for military and security forces, educational projects for imams and religious guides, and support for Sufi orders and zawiya (religious schools, lodges, or orders.), which play a significant role in the region’s political and economic decisions—Morocco aims to consolidate its security influence. Furthermore, the initiative seeks to tackle the intertwined challenges of security and development, with a focus on investment in agriculture, as well as the food and pharmaceutical industries in order to address the root causes of instability.
Morocco’s Economic Gains and Investment Leadership
For some time now, Morocco has sought to expand its economic partnership with the region, viewing it as a gateway to broader African markets. This effort has already yielded significant results, with Moroccan exports to Africa increasing from $300 million to more than $3 billion between 2004 and 2024. Moreover, revenues from Moroccan companies investing in African countries have exceeded $2.5 billion, with a large proportion of these investments concentrated in the Sahel-Saharan countries, particularly Mali, which ranks as the third-largest destination for Moroccan investments in Africa. Morocco aims to solidify its leadership as the top investor in the region in critical sectors such as telecommunications, cement production, banking, and services. Additionally, it seeks to expand its investments into priority areas like renewable energy, mineral and natural gas exploration, and the modernization of infrastructure and logistics.
Morocco is also working to strengthen cooperation with African countries by upgrading the infrastructure of its Atlantic ports, particularly the Dakhla Atlantic Port, which is expected to be operational by 2029. Additionally, the kingdom is strategically planning the development of an economic cooperation zone with West Africa, to enhance regional communication and transport networks. This will also help accelerate trade initiatives and create conditions for participating countries to benefit from the African Continental Free Trade Area. Furthermore, the Sahel and West Africa region represent a significant consumer market for Moroccan products, which face challenges in accessing European markets.
Security and Financial Problems
At the same time, Morocco’s partner countries, such as Burkina Faso and Mali, face several challenges that may hinder their commitment to the Moroccan initiative. These countries are concerned about the potential repercussions of Morocco’s warming relations with France on their own internal security. They also believe that the success of the Atlantic Initiative may be undermined by the absence of influential countries like Senegal (a long-standing ally of Morocco) and Mauritania, which has opted to distance itself from the Moroccan initiative in an effort to remain neutral in the geopolitical rivalry between Morocco and Algeria, particularly since it refused to join the Maghreb bloc proposed by Algeria that excluded Morocco. Mauritania’s absence may also be attributed to its concerns over the declining competitiveness of its ports in African trade routes, especially the Port of Nouakchott, which serves as a commercial artery for several Sahelian countries, including Mali.
The project also faces financial challenges due to the considerable distance between the targeted countries and the nearest Atlantic coast, as well as security issues stemming from the unstable conditions in the participating countries, which may lead to fluctuating support for the initiative. Additionally, there is growing interest among major world powers in the Sahel region, driven by their security and economic interests, particularly concerning the transportation of African gas to Europe through intermediary countries. Competition between Morocco and Algeria remains fierce, especially as Algeria struggles to implement the trans-Saharan gas pipeline amid tensions with transit countries, particularly Niger. Consequently, the Atlantic Initiative is part of Morocco’s strategy to transport Nigerien gas through a ‘safe’ pipeline that would cross thirteen countries to reach Europe, with an expected cost of $25 billion.
As it stands, the Moroccan initiative appears poised to strengthen the kingdom’s partnership with European countries and enhance its role in supporting Western interests amid Russian and Chinese expansion. This suggests that Morocco will have little difficulty securing financial backing for the Atlantic Initiative from the United States and Europe, both of which seek regional partners to strengthen their strategic interests. This context also helps to explain Morocco’s prominent role in the governance of the Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation Support launched by Washington in September 2023.
However, the strategic gains associated with Morocco’s ambition for stronger leadership are tempered by several risks arising from the complex and intertwined interests of the countries involved.
Source link : https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/2024/10/moroccos-atlantic-initiative-and-potential-challenges-to-regional-leadership?langu003den
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Publish date : 2024-10-10 17:43:29
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