Wagner interdependence
Fidèle Gouandjika, a minister and special adviser to CAR President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, told AFP his country had signed “a defense deal with Russia and not Wagner … Moscow has subcontracted to Wagner, and if Russia doesn’t agree, it will send us a new contingent,” he added.
Wagner appears to have made few changes on the ground for now, according to the open-source network All Eyes on Wagner, but analysts say it’s unlikely the status quo will prevail.
Russian presence in Africa has so far involved both state and non-state actors, said Maxime Audinet, a research fellow at France’s IRSEM and a Russian politics specialist. While it’s too early to foresee the exact consequences, what happened over the weekend is bound to lead to a “fracture,” he added.
Russia and Wagner are interdependent, he added: The mercenary group relies on the Russian state for military supplies and Russia depend on Wagner to operate in areas where Moscow doesn’t want to have an official footprint.
In a deal reportedly brokered by Belarus to end the mutiny, some of Prigozhin’s merceneries will be absorbed into the regular Russian army, raising questions as to whether Wagner mercenaries in Africa will remain a separate entity or not. Replacing Wagner mercenaries overnight would be very difficult, Audinet added.
Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the recent events in the country would not affect Russia’s relation with “partners and friends” | Rodger Bosch/AFP via Getty Images
There are also financial disputes that need to be resolved. Prigozhin reportedly complained on Telegram about missing Russian money in Africa.
Source link : https://www.politico.eu/article/wagner-africa-mali-operations-will-continue-russia-sergey-lavrov-vows/
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Publish date : 2023-06-26 07:00:00
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