Current Situation
Food insecurity: FEWS NET field assessments and observations across central and southern Malawi in mid-January 2024 showed that food insecurity has worsened since December, with expected Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely extending into the January to March period as more households face depleted food stocks from own-production and inadequate income sources amid very high prices for food and basic nonfood commodities. Most households, especially poor and very poor households, eat only once per day and consume wild foods and less preferred foods. Around the October to January period, households reported surviving on a diet of boiled mangoes, wild tubers, or wild vegetables for months, causing stomach diseases. Some households reported skipping meals some days of the week.
Rainfall performance: Despite some improvements in early January, the 2023/24 rainfall season performance remains erratic. From the end of January to mid-February, Malawi was in the middle of a prolonged dry spell of up to a month across all regions. According to the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCM), rainfall amounts from December to January were generally above normal in most southern areas, with normal to above-normal rainfall in much of central and northern Malawi. However, forecasts indicate that January to March rainfall will likely be below average in southern and central Malawi, driven by El Niño conditions. Meanwhile, rainfall in northern Malawi is expected to be average to above average. Extreme events such as mid-season dry spells and localized flooding are expected. This forecast is in line with the revised SARCOF forecast released in January 2024 and the FEWS NET seasonal forecast update released in January 2024. The overall below-normal forecast will likely reduce production for food and cash crops. In the previous strong El Niño season of 2015/16, production of the maize staple decreased by over 30 percent compared to the five-year average.
Maize stocks: Below-normal maize stocks are held by government institutions responsible for managing the Strategic Grain Reserves and subsidized food sales. In December 2023, the National Food Reserve Agency (The Times-News) reported that only 14,000 metric tons of government reserves would remain after drawdowns for ADMARC sales and humanitarian food assistance, sufficient to feed 200,000 households for only one month. However, private traders are holding stocks for commercial sales at higher prices than the government-subsidized prices. These stocks are obtained from maize that traders hoarded and are now offloading on the markets to sell at higher prices during the lean period, as well as stocks that are being imported through informal cross-border trade, especially from Tanzania. The stocks are still deemed to be below average, with remote and smaller markets still facing maize shortages, especially in southern Malawi. FEWS NET assessments in January showed that most ADMARC markets, which sell maize at government-subsidized prices, had no maize in stock, and most households expected to depend on the expensive maize in local council markets. Purchases were being rationed, with a maximum purchase of 25 kilograms per person allowed. This results in most households failing to access enough food.
Maize imports: High levels of informal imports of maize, especially from Tanzania, are being observed in the current consumption season. Trends in FEWS NET monitoring data show a steady increase in informal maize imports from an average of 3,000 MT in December 2022 and January 2023 to around 12,500 MT in the same period of the current consumption season, which is a 330 percent increase. Further increases in imports will likely be recorded in the outlook period as the government and some development partners are reporting planned importation of maize in the face of very low local stocks (VOA News). While Malawi had earlier restricted the importation of maize grain from Tanzania due to an outbreak of necrosis disease that affects maize, the government has lifted the ban on condition that the maize is milled.
Income sources and terms of trade: Current terms of trade are unfavorable for poorer households in the face of reduced labor availability and above-average prices of food and basic non-food commodities throughout the consumption season. FEWS NET assessments conducted in January 2024 in southern Malawi districts found that a day’s labor wage is barely enough to buy 1 kilogram of maize. Yet, an average household requires 2.5 to 3 kgs of maize to meet their energy needs. In the previous consumption season, a day’s labor wages could suffice to buy between 3 to 5 kilograms of maize. The assessment revealed that wages paid for agricultural and non-agricultural labor had increased by about 20 to 30 percent above last year following the devaluation of the MWK. However, respondents reported steep reductions in labor availability ranging from 50 to 75 percent below normal. These findings were also supported by results of the Off-Own Farm Income (OOFI) phone survey implemented by FEWS NET in January 2024. About 40 percent of the respondents in the survey reported that labor availability had decreased, with another 40 percent reporting reductions in charcoal sales and yet another 55 percent of the respondents reporting reductions in incomes from petty trading. The main causes of these reductions were reported to be the previous poor agricultural season due to Tropical Cyclone Freddy, the devaluation of the MWK, and economic hardships across all wealth-groups, with even the middle and better-off households that typically offer labor to the poor or form a customer base for trade having lost their crops and assets during Tropical Cyclone Freddy.
Macroeconomy: Malawi is currently recording negative macroeconomic conditions driven by low foreign currency availability, impacts of natural disasters, and a low agricultural production year. Despite some donor inflows from November 2023, the Reserve Bank of Malawi indicates that the country continues to register increased inflation, recorded at 35 percent in January 2024 compared to 33 percent in November 2023. Malawi’s foreign currency levels remain low, reported by the Reserve Bank of Malawi to be at 2.7 months of import cover, which is still lower than the recommended minimum of 3.9 months of cover. The MWK is reported to have lost value by 50 percent against the USD in the last quarter of 2023. Despite the intended realignment of the MWK to other foreign currencies by a 44 percent devaluation in November 2023, the market parity between the government official exchange rate and the parallel market remains at 14 percent, which is an improvement compared to the pre-devaluation period when the parity was around 60 percent.
Input access: Current access to agricultural inputs is lower than normal in the current production season, especially for fertilizer, which is essential for crop production. Improvements in timeliness and access were recorded, with between 70 and 90 percent of the targeted farmers having accessed their inputs by early January 2024. However, despite these improvements, the number of beneficiaries has been drastically cut by the government due to financial constraints amid escalating global fertilizer prices. In the 2023/24 season, the number of subsidized input beneficiaries has decreased to 1,500,000 from 2,500,000 the previous year, representing a 40 percent decrease. Malawi was previously targeting all of the estimated 3.7 million subsistence farmers, which means only 40 percent of possible beneficiaries are currently being targeted. Another driving factor reducing access is the steep increase in prices of non-subsidized fertilizer, with the cost of a 50-kilogram bag of fertilizer rising by 300 percent (from around 20,000 MWK to over 80,000 MWK) over two years due to increasing global prices as well as depreciation and devaluation of the local currency.
Tobacco production and marketing: Tobacco is the number one foreign exchange earner, accounting for about 70 percent of Malawi’s annual earnings (Mwapata Institute). Current targets and projections for tobacco production in the 2023/24 production year are expected to be higher than last year’s. According to the first round of production estimates by the Tobacco Commission released in February 2024, Malawi will likely produce 146,000 metric tons of tobacco, an increase compared to about 120,000 metric tons last year and the five-year average of about 143,200. Over the past years, Malawi’s tobacco production has been below average and below buyer demand due to weather hazards and the withdrawal of input support by tobacco companies. Tobacco incomes will likely be above average as tobacco will likely sell above 2 USD per kilogram, as compared to a five-year average of 1.79 USD per kilogram. Over the past three years, Malawi tobacco has been trading at an average of around 2.30 USD per kilogram (Tobacco Reporter), the highest price as compared to previous years. While the Tobacco Commission has led a drive to increase tobacco production by increasing the number of licensed tobacco farmers, the current erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells are posing a threat to the set targets.
Nutrition: Trend analysis for the past four years has seen some significant increases in severe acute malnutrition (SAM) cases during the December to March period, a typical lean season period. A 7 percent increase in SAM cases was observed in January 2023 compared to January 2022, which is more than double the rate of increase from January 2021 to January 2022 (3 percent). With SAM cases for December 2023 already higher than in December 2022, more SAM cases for January 2024 are likely to be observed. As labor opportunities have started to diminish, below-average incomes are compromising household purchasing power for poor and very poor households, affecting access to food and dietary diversity. Overall, at the national level, the global acute malnutrition (GAM) levels have increased but remain within the Acceptable Level (GAM
Maize prices: Maize prices in FEWS NET-monitored markets have continued to increase significantly, with prices in December trending 10 percent higher than in November, nearly 90 percent above last year, and 230 percent above the five-year average. The national average nominal price in FEWS NET-monitored markets was 905 MWK per kilogram. In the field assessments conducted by FEWS NET in January in nine districts of southern Malawi, prices ranged from 750 MWK to 1,100 MWK, as compared to last year’s 350 MWK to 700 MWK per kilogram, which is about 75 percent higher. Alternative foods such as cassava, sweet potatoes, and rice were also very high, ranging from 30 to 65 percent above last year’s prices and 95 to 110 percent above the five-year average (Malawi Price Bulletin, January-2024).
Humanitarian food assistance: An increased number of households are facing food insecurity due to the loss of assets caused by Tropical Cyclone Freddy and the worsening macroeconomic conditions following successive devaluations of the MWK (25 percent in May 2022 and 44 percent in November 2023). Humanitarian assistance is underway in most affected southern Malawi districts, in addition to some benefiting in central and northern Malawi districts, identified as severely food insecure by the MVAC-led IPC analysis in July 2023. The current ration is a 50-kilogram bag of maize or its cash equivalent, which can provide around 65 percent of an average household’s monthly kilocalorie needs. However, the number of food-insecure households exceeds the number of targeted households benefiting from humanitarian assistance. According to the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DODMA), around 60 percent of the required funding for the assistance program was raised. The recent FEWS NET assessment in January found that some districts in southern Malawi that required assistance had not yet been reached, while in some areas, the assistance would cover fewer than the projected months of response. Hence, the level of humanitarian assistance is insufficient to improve food security outcomes, and these districts remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Current Food Security Outcomes
Results of a FEWS NET food security outcome analysis showed that households in most districts in southern Malawi are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from February to May 2024 due to the impacts of consecutive cyclones from 2019 to date, an ongoing El Niño below-normal rainfall season, and depletion of assets and resilience. Households in central and northern Malawi are expected to experience None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, with parts of some districts such as Salima and Nkhotakota in central Malawi and Karonga in northern Malawi registering Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes. From February to March, several districts, such as Nsanje, Chikwawa, Mulanje, and Phalombe, will face Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in the presence of humanitarian assistance, reaching over 25 percent of the district population and providing about 65 percent of each household’s caloric needs. Districts such as Thyolo, Blantyre, Chiradzulu, Mwanza, Neno, parts of Zomba, Machinga, and Mangochi will likely continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes, as humanitarian assistance is not adequate to improve the food security outcomes. Districts such as Balaka in Southern Malawi, parts of Salima and Nkhotakota in central Malawi, and parts of Karonga in northern Malawi are expected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through March 2024. Food security outcomes will start to improve in the April/May period when the main harvests start.
Source link : https://fews.net/southern-africa/malawi/food-security-outlook/february-2024
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Publish date : 2024-03-02 00:51:12
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