Since August 2020, Africa has witnessed a series of military takeovers and attempted coups, with the latest being in Guinea Bissau some days ago.
The wave of juntas has rekindled the debate about the fragility of African democracies and whether military rules indeed are out of fashion in the continent.
More worrisome is the street celebrations that followed some of these takeovers, indicating the long-nursed animosity between the political leaders and the masses in the continent.
It all began in Mali in August 2020 after the government of President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita was toppled by the military. Months later, a failed coup attempt happened in Niger in March 2021.
This raises concerns on the contagious nature of military takeovers, as analysts warned that they could spread to other countries, which they eventually have.
In April 2021, Chad witnessed an unusual coup following the killing of President Idris Derby who had presided over the country for three decades. He died on the battlefield and was hurriedly replaced by his son in a violation of the country’s constitution.
By May 2021, Mali again had what has been described as a coup within a coup after the arrest of the transitional president Bah Ndaw and his Prime minister Moctar Ouanne by the military.
The wave blew to Guinea in September 2021 as President Alpha Conde was overthrown by a top military officer. By the following month, it was Sudan’s turn as Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok was deposed by the military led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.
Then on 23 January 2022, the first takeover of the new year occurred in Burkina Faso as the military led by Paul-Henri Sandogo Damiba overthrew the Roch Marc Christina Kabore led government. And February 1, 2022, Guinea Bissau became the latest to experience the surge as an attempted coup occurred in the West African country. Though a failed coup, many members of the security forces were reportedly killed during the encounter.
Waves of military coups are not alien to Africa. Between 1956 and 2001, 80 successful military takeovers and 108 failed coup attempts were recorded in sub-Saharan Africa, a study reveals. This represents an average of four in a year. But the past two decades came with huge relief as smooth, uninterrupted democratic transitions reign across the continent.
For instance, Nigeria had a long history of bloody military coups between 1966 and 1993. However, since 1999, it has enjoyed uninterrupted democracy. As such, it seemed military rules had become a thing of the past on the continent, until the recent unfolding events.
The surge in the past few months is a reality check on African elected leaders to review their approach to governance. Though many African countries practice democracy, the true benefits of democratic rules elude the general public.
In a recent survey by Afrobarometer, less than half of the respondents expressed the belief that elections guarantee representation and accountability, which are vital ingredients of democracy.
There has been a deep-seated frustration and dissatisfaction among the populace towards their leaders. Dubiously extending their term limits and rigging elections to hold on to power are common antics by politicians. Their election rigging tactics include muzzling opposition leaders and using the security forces to intimidate the press and electorates.
Many are authoritarians and are alienated from the people they claim to lead. Though they claim to be democratic, many have little or no regard for the rule of law, while some have the judiciary in their pockets. They drive about in expensive motorcade convoys, send their children to the best foreign schools, fly abroad to enjoy the best healthcare, even as the living conditions of their people worsen by the day.
This makes the surge in political instability in many countries not farfetched. Clear examples include Ethiopia, currently dealing with civil war since November 2020, Nigeria, where the government has been fighting separatist movements, banditry, and banditry for the most part of its administration, and other countries with such experiences.
The crisis has put the continent in a serious security threat. In the past few years, there has been an increase in the number of Africans seeking asylum and refugee status abroad in countries like the US and UK, while millions are also internally displaced.
It has also affected the economy in some of these countries as direct foreign investments significantly reduces. This further worsens the already unemployment problem and the poor living conditions.
About 600 million African young people are said to be unemployed, uneducated or in insecure employment, findings by African Union Commission revealed. This potentially makes many African countries a breeding ground for violent-related activities.
While the surge in military coups is a great concern on its own, more worrisome is the street celebrations that follow some of the takeovers. As the international community condemns the coups, many citizens in those countries were jubilant and celebrated the juntas.
In Mali, Guinea and Burkina Faso, people ranging from hundreds to thousands took to the street cheering the soldiers. Many Malians even staged a protest against ECOWAS for sanctioning the military leaders.
Decades ago, the continent basked in the euphoria of the third wave of democratisation with high expectations of a new dawn. Fast forward to today, their hope seems to have been dashed by years of bad leadership, and military rules now seem an option. But is the military rule the answer?
While they may appear rosy at the beginning, history has shown that military rules hardly deliver what the people truly want. Their record of sheer human rights abuse and dictatorship has proven that the military cannot maintain a long-lasting relationship with the led civilian populace.
Their penchant for sit-tightism makes them extend their grip on power for too long. They usually promise a restoration to democratic rules within a short period, they hardly fulfil their promise. For example, the junta in Mali recently requested for five years more to stay at the helms before returning to democratic rule.
They are also known for coups upon coups – a long cycle of one takeover to another – which automatically delays a return to civilian rules. In the Benin Republic, there were about five successive takeovers between 1963 to 1972. Burkina Faso also recorded a series of coups upon coups between 1966 and 1983.
Instances like these prove that military rules will not be an ideal alternative. However, years of deprivation put the African populace in a dilemma of making a difficult choice between the devil and the deep blue sea.
To rescue the continent, African leaders and the international community should move from just condemning the coups but also focusing on the underlying factors making them appear fashionable.
Key ingredients of democracy like free press, independent judiciary, fairness, equality, rule of law, and transparency should get more attention than periodic organised elections which are in many cases rigged. This will strengthen African democracies and boost people’s confidence in their elected leaders.
Olusegun Akinfenwa writes for Immigration Advice Service, a UK based firm that offers global immigration services, including the United States Citizenship and Immigration Process. Most of his works raise awareness about the harsh socio-political realities facing African society, with a view to bringing lasting solutions to them.
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Olusegun Akinfenwa, Immigration Advice Service
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Publish date : 2022-02-11 08:00:00
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