War clouds are gathering over the Middle East—and this time, they’re not over Israel, Iran or Sudan. A crisis is brewing on the Red Sea coast between the region’s two powers: Egypt and Ethiopia. Notice the following relatively recent headlines:
“Could Egypt and Ethiopia’s Tensions Escalate Into a War?” (Deutsche Welle)
“Will Egypt’s Military Deployment Turn Somalia Into Proxy War Battleground?” (The Africa Report)
“Ethiopia Warns Against Invasion Amid Regional Tensions” (bbc)
“Egypt Asks Citizens to Leave Somaliland as Tensions With Ethiopia Mount” (Middle East Eye)
Will we see a new major war erupt in Africa?
The Context
The dispute revolves around the country of Somalia. Ethiopia is one of Africa’s largest countries in both population and economy. But it has lacked a seacoast since Eritrea seceded in the 1990s. Since taking office in 2018, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has offered deals with neighboring countries for access to ports. His deal with Eritrea fell through. So he made a deal with Somalia’s northern breakaway region, Somaliland.
Somalia didn’t take the recognition of Somaliland’s independence lightly. In response, Somalia has invited foreign militaries in. The highest profile of these is Egypt. Since August, Egypt has sent multiple weapons shipments to Somalia. This is the first time Egypt has sent weapons to the region in over 40 years. Egypt has also promised a deployment of 10,000 soldiers to Somalia, at least 5,000 of which would be part of an African Union peacekeeping force. Some suspect this would replace several thousand Ethiopian peacekeepers Somalia may soon eject. Egypt and Somalia have also had joint exercises.
“Ethiopia is being expected to ignore hostile statements and the continued attempt to undermine the sacrifices of Ethiopian defense forces,” Ethiopia’s Foreign Ministry stated, without mentioning Egypt by name. “Ethiopia cannot stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilize the region. Ethiopia is vigilantly monitoring developments in the region that could threaten its national security.”
What makes Egypt’s moves so provocative? Ethiopia has completed construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (gerd) and is now filling it with water. The gerd is the largest hydroelectric dam in Africa. It is expected to double Ethiopia’s electricity generation and increase its gross domestic product by over $80 million by 2060. For a developing country like Ethiopia, the gerd has the potential to be a cash cow.
The gerd sits on the Blue Nile, one of the main tributaries of the Nile River. Egypt is dependent on the Nile for irrigation. The river’s flow being cut off further south would be disastrous for Egypt. For years, the Egyptian government has tried to halt the project. A few months ago, it sent a letter to the United Nations Security Council (unsc) accusing Ethiopia of violating international law with the gerd.
“After having exhausted all amicable means,” Egypt’s letter to the unsc states, “the government of Egypt, therefore, stands ready to exercise its right to defend and protect the rights and interests of the Egyptian people, per the UN Charter.”
Ethiopia, for its part, has sent weapons to Somali rebels.
It appears that Egypt is involving itself in Somalia to cause problems for Ethiopia.
Is War Likely?
Egypt is facing Israel’s war in Gaza on its northeastern border, Sudan’s civil war on its southern border, and the Houthis’ disrupting its Red Sea trade. It is in no position to start a conflict with Ethiopia. Egypt and Ethiopia do not share a border. A conventional war between Egypt and Ethiopia is unlikely.
The United States, meanwhile, has a sizable presence in Somalia. Sparking conflict in Somalia to cause problems for Ethiopia would also cause problems with the U.S. Egypt probably isn’t that desperate to make the U.S. unnecessarily angry.
That being said, the Horn of Africa constantly struggles with perennial unrest: Anything is possible.
The current clash may not morph into anything immediate, but relations between these two regional heavyweights are tense. That Egypt is even threatening war is significant.
The Bible prophesies of a serious crisis to develop between Egypt and Ethiopia. Daniel 11:40 is an end-time prophecy of two power blocs crashing in a major war. The “king of the north” is a European bloc; the “king of the south” is a radical Islamist bloc, led by Iran. The prophecy states the king of the north will overwhelm Iran and its allies (learn more here).
Verses 42-43 discuss other countries that fall to the king of the north. The implication is that they are allied with Iran when this prophecy is fulfilled. The king of the north “shall stretch forth his hand also upon the countries: and the land of Egypt shall not escape. But he shall have power over the treasures of gold and of silver, and over all the precious things of Egypt: and the Libyans and the Ethiopians shall be at his steps.”
“Why did God inspire the mention of Libya and Ethiopia?” Trumpet editor in chief Gerald Flurry asks in his booklet The King of the South. “Every word in God’s inspired Bible has significance. God placed two nations in the same verse as Egypt for a definite reason. This verse shows that Libya and Ethiopia will also be closely allied with Iran!”
None of these countries are allies with Iran as of yet. Ethiopia, for its part, is a majority Christian country. But all these countries are in a region struggling with radical Islamist unrest. Just a few years ago, Egypt was under an Islamist regime. And Iran is always looking to extend its tentacles and take over countries by proxy. What Hezbollah did with Lebanon is a case in point.
“The emphasis in Daniel 11:42-43 is on Egypt—then we have Libya and Ethiopia,” Mr. Flurry continues. “This shows that Egypt is the big conquest! It is the real power behind Libya and Ethiopia, which suggests that it is going to have a heavy hand in swinging those two nations into the Iranian camp.”
The prophecy leads into Daniel 12:1, which describes “a time of trouble, such as never was since there was a nation even to that same time.” This time of trouble starts with strife between Egypt and Ethiopia.
Keep watching the Horn of Africa. Events there will prove to have more global significance than most imagine. If you would like to learn more, request a free copy of The King of the South.
Source link : https://www.thetrumpet.com/30247-will-egypt-and-ethiopia-go-to-war
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Publish date : 2024-10-09 12:22:18
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