East Africa Key Message Update: Famine (IPC Phase 5) continues in part of Al Fasher, Sudan, amid sustained high humanitarian needs across East Africa (August 2024) – Sudan | ReliefWeb
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3 Oct 2024
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3 Oct 2024
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As the lean season peaks in August in East Africa, FEWS NET estimates over 50 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance due to intensifying and protracted conflict, localized flooding, poor macroeconomic conditions, and the long-lasting impacts of the historical 2020-2023 Horn of Africa drought. In Sudan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is ongoing in Zamzam camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) and is possibly ongoing in Abu Shouk and Al Salam IDP camps in Al Fasher locality in North Darfur. Meanwhile, there is a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in several other parts of Sudan and in South Sudan. In the eastern Horn, forecast La Niña-induced below-average October-December rainfall will likely limit late 2024 crop harvests as well as slow the continued recovery of livestock herds. This will likely be exacerbated by the decline of humanitarian assistance amid ongoing flood- and conflict-related displacements in the region.
In Sudan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) continues in the Zamzam camp for IDPs. Famine is also possibly ongoing in nearby Abu Shouk and Al Salam IDP camps amid the ongoing siege, intensification of the conflict, and severe flooding in August. Famine (IPC Phase 5) is expected to continue in these camps through at least October unless immediate action is taken to end the fighting, ease the movement of people, and reduce bureaucratic impediments to humanitarian assistance; the latter is critical to alleviating alarmingly high levels of starvation, acute malnutrition, and mortality. FEWS NET also assesses that the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) continues in the rest of Al Fasher locality in North Darfur; parts of West Darfur and Khartoum; in areas with high concentrations of IDPs across Greater Darfur (particularly in areas of South and Central Darfur); and in Kadugli and Dilling of South Kordofan, where many households face large to extreme food consumption gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). An immediate and coordinated large-scale and sustained delivery of multisectoral assistance is urgently required to mitigate the loss of lives.
In Ethiopia, millions experienced acute food insecurity at the peak of the lean season in August due to current and past conflict, weather, and economic shocks. In northern Ethiopia, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes are expected due to constrained food access, while Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes remain widespread in the rest of the cropping areas. In Tigray and northern Amhara, sustained humanitarian assistance through August and the onset of the September to December meher harvest will increase household access food and income and mitigate a sharp increase in mortality in the medium term. FEWS NET now assesses there is a low likelihood that more extreme outcomes will occur in these areas. In southern/southeastern pastoral areas, though milk availability is expected to moderately improve, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will likely persist as households are yet to recover from the 2020-2023 drought. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected to persist into early 2025 in parts of Afar, where livestock holdings are low, and household access to markets and income is restricted.
In Somalia, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in most areas through January 2025 due to significantly below-average gu harvests, high food prices, and limited income-earning opportunities driven by the compounding impacts of current and historic conflict, drought, and floods. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected through August in the flood-affected riverine areas of Middle Shabelle and in some IDP settlements through January 2025. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will be prevalent in most agropastoral areas due to widespread crop production deficits. In Kenya, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist until January 2025 in the flood-affected riverine areas of Garissa and Tana River counties and among pastoral households in Turkana and Marsabit counties, which were worst affected by the recent drought. Meanwhile, improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes is expected in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas due to enhanced access to food and income from improved livestock and crop production following average March-May rainfall.
In South Sudan, over half of the counties remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), with some households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in remote areas of Pibor of Greater Pibor Administrative Area, Duk of Jonglei, and among returnees and refugees in areas of transit (particularly in Renk of Upper Nile, Rubkona of Unity, and Aweil East of Northern Bahr el Ghazal). The high levels of acute food insecurity are driven by concurrent shocks, including a deteriorating economy, soaring food prices, high returnee burden, continued conflict and insecurity, and escalating flooding. Moreover, FEWS NET assesses a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists in the low-lying and flood- and conflict-prone areas in north-central Unity, Upper Nile, and Jonglei if households are isolated from accessing typical food and income sources, including humanitarian assistance, for a prolonged period due to flooding and conflict.
In Uganda, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist in Karamoja and most refugee settlementsthrough January 2025. In Karamoja, access to green harvests and decreasing staple food prices are improving food security, though districts with successive years of below-average harvests and limited income-earning opportunities continue to face food consumption gaps. Refugees received limited first season harvests and have minimal access to income or food assistance. This is exacerbated by an influx of new arrivals, particularly from Sudan. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) will persist, particularly in northern settlements, and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) is expected in areas with more favorable market functionality and slightly improved purchasing power from cash-based assistance. In Burundi, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in the Imbo Plains and Northern Lowlands and extend to the eastern areas from October 2024 to January 2025, driven by the early depletion of food stocks following below-average harvests and limited income-earning opportunities (particularly from cross-border activities with Rwanda). Meanwhile, food consumption gaps among refugees and asylum seekers will continue to increase until September due to limited humanitarian funding and above-average staple food prices.
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Source link : https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/east-africa-key-message-update-famine-ipc-phase-5-continues-part-al-fasher-sudan-amid-sustained-high-humanitarian-needs-across-east-africa-august-2024
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Publish date : 2024-10-03 22:46:10
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