Current Situation
Sudan crisis and impacts on food security in Chad: The humanitarian crisis in eastern Chad caused by the security situation in neighboring Sudan continues to impact food security in the host provinces. An estimated 556,410 refugees and 144,015 Chadian returnees have been registered since February 2024 (UNHCR). Daily influxes estimated at nearly 200 people are reported by humanitarian actors. As of late January 2024, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimates that more than 160,000 individuals are awaiting local registration in impromptu sites along the Sudanese border. These arrivals severely disrupt the livelihoods of indigenous households already facing agricultural production deficits. The competition for employment opportunities and resource pressure with returning refugees is resulting in an erosion of incomes in the departments of Assoungha and Kimiti, as well as across most host areas. Finally, the cessation of trade at the beginning of this crisis is having a significant impact on the local economy in the east of the country, which is largely dependent on cross-border flows with Sudan.
Off-season agricultural campaign: Off-season campaign activities are characterized by a reduction in cultivated areas. These decreases in cultivated areas follow low humidity levels, resulting from the deficient rainfall totals of the 2023 to 2024 season. Irrigation of market gardens using motor pumps is limited by the increases in the price of fuel per liter. In Amleyouna and Adré (Ouaddai Province) and Goz-Beida (Sila Province), crop wilting has forced many producers to abandon market gardening.
Pastoral situation: Pastoralists are all in the southern zone, which are better endowed with pastoral resources (crop residues, water points, etc.) than in Ouaddaï and Sila, where pasture conditions have deteriorated and temporary ponds have dried up due to the rainfall deficit last winter, leading to a harsh and early pastoral lean period.
Food sources: During this period, market purchases constitute the main food source for households in the area. Most very poor and poor households in the area are entirely dependent on market purchases because of the early depletion of their cereal stocks. However, the volumes of these purchases are very small because of the high prices of agricultural products on the markets. The sharing of meals between households reduces the quantities consumed. This is more pronounced in host households and villages hosting Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees. Humanitarian aid products are a very important source of food that can cover the consumption needs of refugee and returnee households for two to three weeks. Given the growing numbers of Sudanese refugees and the difficulties in financing food aid, the volumes distributed are below the needs of the populations.
Sources of income: The massive presence of Sudanese refugees in search of opportunities has caused a significant erosion in the level of income. This is due to the slowdown in economic activities resulting from the Sudan crisis. Significant decreases in income from manual labor, domestic work, sales of straw, and firewood are observed. For example, the daily income derived from brickmaking amounts to only 500 CFA francs instead of the previous average of 1,500 CFA francs before the arrival of refugees. These decreases are due to the pressure on available resources, which generate only limited income. Agricultural labor in market gardening areas employs only a limited number of people for onion harvests, with incomes much lower than in a normal year. In Adré and Goz Beida, there are reported decreases in income due to an oversupply of labor amid limited opportunities. These decreases represent a more than 60 percent drop compared to a normal year, especially in Goz Beida. Manual labor activities around markets, which previously brought in 3,000 CFA francs per day, currently provide only about 1,500 to 2,000 CFA francs. This decline in income is directly linked to the oversupply of labor coupled with the slowdown in road traffic, particularly the flows from Sudan. Furthermore, there is often a pronounced reliance on negative coping strategies, such as the sale of personal items (pots, clothes, construction materials used in shelter construction), which are widely adopted by refugees and returnees. These strategies are observed in particular in the Djabal, Zabout, and Adré transit camp and are mainly aimed at accessing food and income.
Food markets: Supplies of food products imported from Libya and Cameroon (via N’Djaména) have increased. In addition to these alternative flows, there are internal cereal flows from the country’s other provinces (Salamat, Guéra, N’Djaména, and Sudanese provinces). However, these flows are unable to close the gap created by the halt in imports from Sudan. The supply of food products is below that of a normal year due to high transportation costs caused by increased fuel prices and shortages. Some of the alternative flows are also re-exported to Sudanese border towns via informal smuggling channels. The continued stoppage of inward flows of manufactured food products from Sudan is sharply reducing availability in local markets. Faced with a sharp increase in the area’s population due to the presence of refugees, returnees, and humanitarian workers, demand has exploded. In the department of Assoungha, the proportion of refugees represents nearly 44 percent of the local population. As a result of the large influx of foreigners seeking employment in the major hosting centers (Adré, Goz Beida, Farchana), food prices are very high and have even doubled for some products. For example, a bag of pasta sells for 1,250 FCFA, compared to 500 FCFA previously. The price of a coro of sorghum (equivalent to 2.5 kg) is currently sold at 400 to 450 FCFA, compared with 300 to 350 FCFA in a normal year. These price levels are further exacerbated by fuel price hikes.
Livestock markets: Market supply is lower than in a normal year due to the relocation of pastoralists further south as a result of poor local pastoral conditions. Indeed, despite this and the transhumance season, the impossibility of transactions with Sudan limits the availability of animals on the markets of this export transit zone. This low level of supply has led to a slight increase in prices for small ruminants compared with the average, despite normal to below-normal demand. The price of a locally bred sheep varies from 23,000 to 25,000 FCFA or even 35,000 FCFA, as compared to 20,000 to 25,000 FCFA in a normal year. Breeds imported from Sudan are sold at between 40,000 and 60,000 FCFA, compared with an average of 30,000 FCFA during a normal year.
Nutritional situation: According to UINICEF data updated on January 15, 187,071 children have been screened for moderate and severe acute malnutrition. Among them, 21,995 cases of moderate acute malnutrition and 12,043 cases of severe acute malnutrition, i.e. 18 percent of those screened, were treated in children aged 6 to 59 months. In addition, 17,077 pregnant women were screened, and 2,365 cases of malnutrition treated. The results of the latest IPC AMN analysis conducted in December 2023 indicate a deterioration in the nutritional situation to Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4 in the provinces of Ouaddaï and Sila between January and May 2024. The regular influx of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees from Sudan, poor infant and young child feeding practices, and poor hygiene and sanitation conditions have contributed significantly to this deterioration in the nutritional situation.
Humanitarian situation: According to the humanitarian profile published jointly by the Chadian government (Ministry of Public Health) and the World Health Organization (WHO) at the end of January 2024, the Sudanese crisis is affecting more than 2 million people in eastern Chad. Of this population, 1,115,626 are in need of urgent assistance. As of February 7, 2024, WFP has provided food aid to 633,450 people, including 495,962 new refugees, 87,372 returnees, and 50,116 people from host households (UNHCR). The monthly ration distributed is 12.5 kg per person per month of sorghum, 2.5 kg per person per month of beans, and 1 liter of cooking oil. Cash transfer operations covered 37,601 people with a monthly amount of 7,000 FCFA per person. Humanitarian actors, including the UNHCR, are forecasting an additional 250,000 new arrivals by 2024.
Assumptions
In addition to the national-level assumptions, the following assumptions apply to this area of concern:
Off-season and rainy agricultural seasons: Increases in fuel prices are expected to continue to affect the maintenance of agricultural perimeters during the off-season campaign. The rainy season will likely experience a normal start, with average rainfall. Rain-fed agricultural activities will be characterized by average to slightly above-average planting, driven by the enthusiasm of indigenous households after the deficits of the 2023 to 2024 agricultural campaign as well as by the participation of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees, who may engage in agricultural activities to procure food in addition to the assistance they receive. Finally, the high availability of low-cost labor, reinforced by the oversupply of refugees and returnees offering their workforce, will promote a slight increase in cultivated areas.
Pastoral situation: The early pastoral lean season since January 2024 will reach its peak between March and June with a longer than normal period. Pastoral conditions will likely improve with the regeneration of vegetation cover and normal replenishment of seasonal ponds.
Food markets: During the Ramadan period between March and April 2024, atypical price increases compared with the five-year average will also be observed and will precede increases during the winter period when atypical levels will be reported. These trends will follow seasonal slowdowns, the presence of transhumant herders in the area reinforcing demand, as well as continuous influxes of refugees and returnees to the area.
Livestock markets: The downward trend in livestock prices will resume throughout the winter due to the presence of transhumant herders in the area.
Humanitarian aid: Funding for humanitarian aid is expected to continue during the outlook period, thus ensuring the continued distribution of food aid.
Nutritional situation: In the provinces of Ouaddai and Sila, the nutritional situation is expected to be Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4) throughout the analysis period, according to the latest IPC AMN analyses of December 2023.
Income sources:
Wage labor: Income from domestic work and brickmaking will see a significant decrease due to oversupply resulting from the high mobilization of refugees and returnees offering their labor. These levels will be maintained throughout the analysis period.
Sale of firewood: Revenues from this activity will remain much lower than in a normal year due to the scarcity of available resources due to pressure on availability, coupled with competition on access and control. Government restrictions in place will further limit the volumes collected. The low seasonal availability during the wintering season will reduce the quantities sold in the face of pressure on collection.
Agricultural labor: Income derived from off-season agricultural work will significantly decrease due to oversupply. The reduction in cultivated areas due to limited access to fuel for irrigation will significantly reduce employment opportunities in market gardening sites between March and May 2024. These low income levels will likely persist during the rainy season due to oversupply. This oversupply will be sustained by competition among refugees, returnees, and host households for employment opportunities, further limiting income levels.
Sale of livestock: Between February and June 2024, the poor physical condition of livestock as a result of the atypical pastoral lean season will affect their market value. Income from these sales will be much lower than in a normal year due to low prices on the markets. The oversupply linked to the presence of transhumant herders in the wintering season, coupled with the cessation of exports to Sudan, will limit income due to low prices in local markets. Finally, the sale of small ruminants will yield very modest incomes for very poor and poor host households.
Begging: Despite its intensification, very marginal incomes will be derived from this activity. These low incomes will be due to high mobilization.
Food sources:
Market purchases: Market purchases are expected to decrease significantly due to the atypical upward price trends caused by the depletion of cereal stocks among indigenous households. Refugees’ purchasing volumes will be even more marginal due to constraints on their purchasing power from the erosion of their main income sources, exacerbated by oversupply.
Payment in kind: The volumes of food products received as payment for services in market gardening areas will be very low compared to a normal year. This follows the limited food availability in most host households, coupled with the scarce employment opportunities for Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees between February and May 2024. This situation will persist throughout the analysis period.
Host households’ own production: The first harvests of agricultural products will supplement the consumption of host households as well as refugees and returnees hosted by local households between August and September 2024. However, these contributions will remain very low and will not be able to cover consumption needs.
Wild products: The low availability of these products, subject to the pressure on available resources, will limit the volumes collected. Competition for scarce supplies will result in reduced amounts collected by households.
Solidarity: The sharing of meals between host households and refugees and returnees, a cultural practice of solidarity, will decrease during the rainy season due to increased financial precariousness during the lean season, which will lead to reductions in meal sizes.
Aid products: The amount of aid provided will not be able to compensate for consumption gaps due to the increasing number of beneficiaries. The continuous arrival of new refugees and meal-sharing practices contribute to reducing the availability of these products for refugees.
Most Likely Food Security Outcomes
From February to May 2024: Consumption gaps will be observed among very poor and poor households due to early depletion of cereal stocks, leading to early and increased dependence on markets. These households will also face the erosion of their incomes. In the presence of unusually high price increases compared to a typical year, purchase volumes will be significantly limited. Due to lack of income, refugees are expected to resort to begging, as the food received from aid covers their consumption needs for an average of only three weeks. Access to cereal markets is limited. Therefore, the significant dependence on humanitarian aid (food and cash) will prevent the deterioration of their food consumption. Despite this, they will have food consumption deficits. In the departments of Assougha and Kimiti, where there is a high proportion of refugees and returnees, the low incomes earned are insufficient to meet household food needs, despite the adoption of crisis coping strategies. However, the dependence on food aid has prevented the deterioration of their food consumption. These households are in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!). Households classified as very poor and poor, as well as refugees and returnees from the departments of Abdi, Ouara, and Djourouf Al-Ahmar, will experience food consumption gaps due to limited access to food. They will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Furthermore, the intense pressure on scarce resources and competition for opportunities could escalate into conflicts over access to and control of these resources, especially with a new influx of refugees.
From June to September 2024: The heavy reliance of households on markets will be hindered by the unusually high upward trends compared to a normal year. Consumption deficits will be observed due to a reduction in social solidarity practices. This reduction will be driven by the low availability in host households. The increase in begging will represent a negative coping strategy, yielding only minimal, marginal incomes. Competition for opportunities will persist due to the influx of refugees, significantly reducing the incomes generated by various activities. This will result in an oversupply of labor, which will continue to keep household incomes significantly lower compared to a normal year. The intensification of strategies such as increased engagement in domestic work and agricultural labor will not be able to compensate for the income gaps resulting from the erosion of primary income sources. Refugees and returnees will depend on food aid to limit food consumption deficits. The nutritional situation will continue to deteriorate in host areas due to low coverage of food needs and water-borne diseases. The appearance of malaria cases linked to the wintering season and the influx of refugees could exceed the capacity of basic social services. Households in host departments (Assoungha, Kimiti) will face high gaps in food consumption, as well as Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) acute food insecurity outcomes. Very poor households in the other departments of the hosting area of Ouaddai (Abdi, Ouara) and Sila (Djourouf Al Amar) will have consumption deficits and will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). This deterioration in consumption will result from limited food access due to low incomes in the face of atypical price increases compared to a normal year on the cereal markets.
Source link : https://fews.net/west-africa/chad/food-security-outlook/february-2024
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Publish date : 2024-02-13 08:00:00
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