Current Situation
Socio-political context: The precarious political lull that prevailed after the protests on 20 October 2022 against the extension of the transition and the reappointment of the current transition president has been temporarily broken. Judicial measures, widely denounced by political and civil society players, have been taken against the leaders of the “Transformers” party. However, an agreement in principle was signed between the government and opposition players, notably from the “Transformers” party, at the end of October 2023 in Kinshasa under the aegis of the Congolese Facilitator. In addition, government preparations for the referendum on 17 December 2023 are underway.
Regional context and population movements (Sudan): The Sudan crisis continues to provoke massive and regular influxes of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees into Chad. More than 500,000 people, including 80,986 Chadian returnees, are being received in the east of the country (IOM). Children and women make up the majority of these refugees.
Security context (politico-military conflicts, inter-community conflicts, and population movements): In mid-August 2023, clashes between rebel groups and government forces were reported in the Tibesti region. This resumption of hostilities marks the end of the ceasefire between the belligerents, which has been in force for over a year. The army has deployed additional troops to reinforce surveillance of the Chad-Libya border. This renewed tension is affecting cross-border flows, particularly those to Chad.
Since the end of September 2023, an increase in farmer-breeder conflicts has been observed in several localities in the southern zone. In the Moyen Chari region, new outbreaks of farmer-herder conflict were recorded in Koumogo and Korbol, where nearly a dozen people were killed and several seriously injured. The June 2023 security crisis in the Nya Pendé department has had an impact on the agricultural season. More than 16,000 people who fled insecurity to seek refuge in the Central African Republic (CAR) have not returned.
In the Lac region, recurrent movements of people due to persistent insecurity during the rainy season continue to undermine the food security of IDPs and host households. In August 2023, some 3,000 Chadians left Lac province for Niger in search of opportunities, as insecurity exacerbated their precarious situation. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) reports the return of 100 households of Chadian returnees who are now leaving Niger due to insecurity.
Agricultural situation:
Rainy season: The rainy season was severely disrupted by below-normal rainfall and long dry spells in most parts of the country, with production declines more pronounced in the Sahel. Rainfall deficits have also favored the appearance of crop pests, including armyworms in Sila, reported by the provincial agricultural services. The national locust control agency (ANLA) has reported the presence of mature and winged locust larvae in Mao in Kanem and Salal in Bahr El Ghazel (BEG). However, the locust situation is generally stable. Cantharid attacks on cowpeas have been reported in Moyen Chari. In Abtouyour and Mangalmé in Guéra and in Abou Deia in Salamat, grain-eating birds and beetles were also reported, with significant damage to crops. The settlement of Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees on agricultural land in Ouaddaï (Assongha department) and in the Sila province has significantly reduced winter cropping by an average of almost 30 percent. In the Sudanian zone, ongoing harvests that started in mid-October contrast with the Sahel, where significant delays, varying from zone to zone, have been reported due to disturbances during the season, leading to the need for reseeding. 2023-2024 hot off-season campaign: Activities currently being carried out can be summarized as: weeding and transplanting of recession sorghum (berbere) in Salamat and Guéra, and rice transplanting and berbere plot maintenance in Mayo Kebbi. In the Western Sahel (Kanem, BEG), market gardening is intensifying, as it is increasingly supported by humanitarian and development organizations as a means of building resilience. Despite the enthusiasm of the growers, they are limited by the price of fuel for the motor pumps.
Pastoral situation and livestock movements: From mid-September 2023, the low availability of pasture and the early drying-up of semi-permanent ponds used for livestock watering led to an early transhumance towards the south and Sila starting in September 2023 instead of December. The first herds reached the southern zone, in Moyen Chari, Tandjilé, and on the borders between the provinces of Mayo Kebbi Est and Chari Baguirmi. The early presence of pastoralists in the south of the country has led to pastoral overload and competition between transhumant herders for access to and control of pastoral areas. In addition to the pressure on pastoral resources, recurrent brawls between farmers and herders have been recorded since the arrival of these transhumants in Moyen Chari.
Household and institutional stocks: For the institutional stock, during 2023, the Office National de Sécurité Alimentaire (ONASA) sold 33,000 tons of cereals at moderate prices. Currently, the institutional cereal stock available is 18,000 tons, whereas current needs are estimated at 53,000 tons.
In the Sudanian zone, current harvests are helping to replenish household stocks. However, levels are slightly below a normal year due to lower production. In the Eastern Sahel, more significant declines were recorded, particularly in the refugee zone. The pressure exerted on resources by very poor and poor households in the Sahel, refugees, and Chadian returnees is reducing the quantities of resources available.
Livelihoods: In most areas of the country, household livelihoods are deteriorating as a result of declines in agricultural production, poor pastoral conditions, and disruptions in flows linked to security constraints. The volumes of food products imported from Libya are significantly reduced by the security disruptions at the border, thus impacting the income from the local workforce involved in their distribution. In Lac, in the absence of food aid, the displaced resort to wild foods to supplement the small volumes of in-kind payments received for agricultural work. Income levels are generally falling due to the scarcity of opportunities in the face of the oversupply of agricultural and non-agricultural labor in farming and agropastoral areas. Daily wages are largely down, reaching only40 percent compared with a typical year. Income from the sale of handicrafts, wild products, and faggots is very limited. In Mangalmé, Ouaddaï, and Sila, seasonal migration began earlier than in a normal year and is reported to have intensified due to seasonal trends, suggesting a drop in agricultural production. Livestock exports to Sudan and Nigeria are zero and reduced, respectively. This affects the income levels of households, agropastoralists, and pastoralists in Ouaddaï, Wadi Fira, BEG, Kanem, and Batha. In Tibesti, the ban on artisanal gold panning since June 2022 significantly reduces the income levels of most very poor and poor households and it’s use by local craftsmen and those from other provinces is restricted. Cross-border trade and migration are slowed by insecurity. These activities generate paltry income.
Food markets: The supply of food products is below normal due to production cuts, the halt in the inflow of products imported from Sudan, and security disruptions at the border with Libya. High transport costs are exacerbating declines in market supply volumes. An atypical increase in cereal demand is observed in most parts of the country, particularly in the eastern provinces, due to the influx of Sudanese refugees and returnees. Beccause of high level of demand, food prices are rising atypically, compared with the five-year average. Millet prices are increasing in Abéché (38 percent), N’Djaména (23 percent), Moundou (41 percent), and Sarh (34 percent). Sorghum shows the largest price increases compared with the five-year average in Sarh (55 percent) and Kélo (77 percent).
Livestock markets: A decline in supply has been observed in the markets of Adré and Dogdoré, localities close to the Sudanese border, due to the risks associated with the current situation in Sudan, which could lead to cattle theft. The early departure of transhumants and sedentary herds entrusted to pastoralists to the south of the country reduces supplies to the Biltine market, one of the main markets in the area. The Sila market is oversupplied with livestock due to the presence of transhumant. The closure of the Niger-Nigeria border has led to a massive detour of livestock through Cameroon to transport cattle from Chad to Nigeria, despite the depreciation of the Nigerian naira. Localized increases in cattle prices, compared with the five-year average, were observed in Abéché (37 percent) due to the presence of intermediaries for collection destined for Nigeria. Livestock markets in Mayo Kebbi Est, Mayo Kebbi Ouest, and Tandjilé on the Cameroon border are showing moderate increases compared with the five-year price average (15 to 35 percent) due to demand for exports to Cameroon and Nigeria.
Nutritional situation: High rates of admissions of severely malnourished children were reported in areas hosting Sudanese refugees and Chadian returnees between June and September 2023. The massive influx of these people is an additional burden on basic social services, which are already fragile due to poor hygiene and sanitation practices, as well as water-borne diseases. This strain, coupled with the food deficits associated with the lean season, has probably contributed significantly to the high levels of acute malnutrition.
Humanitarian situation: A total of 519,570 people, including 77,320 Chadian returnees, have taken refuge in Chad because of insecurity in Sudan. These people have lost their livelihoods and are being accommodated in newly created transit sites or camps located in 35 villages; Ouaddaï is home to over 327,000 people (UNCHR, updated 19 October 2023). Adré, capital of the Assoungha department in the Ouaddaï region, hosted refugees and returnees far exceeding its population of less than 62,000 (INSEED 2023 estimate). For example, humanitarian actors in Adré have documented over 240,000 refugees and returnees. These refugees are in host households and on transit sites, waiting to be moved to new or existing refugee camps further away from the border. Food aid was provided by the WFP to 440,279 people, i.e., 384,881 refugees, 38,660 Chadian migrant returnees, and 16,738 people from vulnerable populations in the various localities of the Eastern reception zone. However, FEWS NET does not have details of the monthly distribution and content of these food aid packages. The delay in mobilizing funding to assist these refugees and returnees is limiting the response of humanitarian organizations to the food needs of refugees, who depend mainly on this aid. Faced with extreme food insecurity, many refugees/returnees live off begging and the solidarity of host households. In Lac, since the cessation of assistance since the beginning of the lean season, the food needs of displaced individuals and host households are no longer compensated.
Current Food Security Outcomes
In the Eastern host provinces (Ouaddaï, Wadi Fira, and Sila) and in Lac, food consumption by refugees, returnees, IDPs, and host households continues to deteriorate due to pressure on markets and competition for livelihoods. This is further exacerbated by the decline in food production, which limits the availability of cereals. Refugees and returnees are creating pressure on the low cereal stocks of host households. Limited supplies of imported and manufactured food products are increasing pressure on markets, leading to atypical price increases. As a result, purchasing volumes are very limited due to low levels of income. Refugees, returnees, and host households in the provinces of Ouaddaï, Sila, and Wadi Fira struggle to meet their food requirements, despite the use of begging by many refugees, and they are in acute food insecurity Crisis (IPC Phase 3) with some households in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The need for food aid is enormous in these provinces as refugees and returnees depend upon it. However, the delay in funding from humanitarian organizations is affecting the implementation of this emergency food aid, which has even been halted in Lac since April 2023. In Lac, low household production levels mean that the basic food needs of the displaced and host households cannot be met. They are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Very poor and poor households in Tibesti face consumption deficits due to disruptions to inflows and the degradation of livelihoods (including artisanal gold panning, cross-border trade, and migration), caused by persistent insecurity on Chad’s borders. In the two provinces of Ennedi Ouest and Ennedi Est, very poor and poor households are suffering consumption deficits from the combined effects of the Sudan crisis and insecurity on the Chad-Libya borders. As a result, very poor and impoverished households in Tibesti, Ennedi Est, and Ennedi Ouest cannot meet their consumption needs without resorting to crisis adaptation strategies and in acute food insecurity Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Household food consumption in western Sahel is also deteriorating, due to poor rainfall and a mediocre pastoral situation. They have little access to food due to price levels that significantly limit the volume of purchases on the markets they depend on for their consumption and are therefore in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The insecurity caused by inter-community conflicts in June 2023 resulted in a poor harvest, leaving the populations of Bekan canton (Nya Pendé department) with low and minimally adequate food consumption. These households use negative strategies such as atypical reduction in the number of meals and intense use of recently harvested products during harvest periods, among others, to satisfy their consumption needs and are therefore in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In the central Sahel (Batha, Guéra, Salamat) and in the Sudanian zone, food consumption by very poor and poor households is improving thanks to ongoing harvests supplemented by winter produce at the end of the rainy season. Households in these areas are in Minimal (IPC Phase 1).
Source link : https://fews.net/west-africa/chad/food-security-outlook/october-2023
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Publish date : 2024-01-03 20:35:41
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