In northern pastoral areas, there are considerable concerns about pasture availability; pasture is declining and there is inedible weed encroachment into pasture for livestock. Pasture is of particular concern in Zones 2 and 4 and areas of Zone 1 in Afar. Livestock migration started atypically early in November as opposed to the typical start in January. Livestock are migrating in search of pasture, predominately to grazing areas along the Awash and Aura rivers.
In most parts of Amhara and Tigray, feed, pasture, and water are available as normal for livestock; however, in Tigray, northeastern Amhara, and areas of Afar, it is important to note that many livestock died during the 2020-2022 conflict. In northeastern Amhara, the availability of crop residue ensures normal access to livestock feed and water. However, in other areas severely affected by drought, notably the Tekeze River catchment, water scarcity is already a concern, as is the current and future availability of feed.
Livestock condition and productivity: Livestock body conditions are broadly normal nationally, but anomalies are observed in the north as well as in the pastoral south and southeast. In woredas that are drought-affected, notably those along the Tekeze River catchment both in Tigray and Amhara regions, livestock body conditions are deteriorating, exacerbated by the occurrence of disease. In Afar, cattle body conditions are declining, but shoats and camels still have near-normal body conditions. Similarly, household access to milk remains below average across Afar, particularly in the conflict and drought-affected areas, mainly due to low herd sizes. In southern and southeastern pastoral areas, calving, kidding, and milk production have been below average due to poor livestock conceptions. However, milk availability from shoats has improved since late September, while cattle milk production is expected in March 2024.
Macroeconomy: Depreciation of the Ethiopian Birr (ETB) has continued, driven by low exports and government revenue alongside poor budgetary support. According to the National Bank of Ethiopia, the November 2023 exchange rate was about 55 ETB/USD, a 5 percent increase compared to the same time last year. Anecdotal reports suggest that the parallel exchange rate is more than twice that of the official rate. Depreciation has also contributed to increases in food and non-food prices nationwide, resulting in high inflation. According to the Central Statistics Agency, food inflation in November remained high at 30 percent on an annual basis, with non-food inflation at 26 percent. The slight decrease in food inflation observed now comparted to the same time last year is generally due to the ongoing meher harvest reaching markets and alleviating supply concerns.
Staple food supply and prices: In most local markets, staple foods prices declined seasonally from October to November due to increased market supplies from the meher harvest. However, staple food prices remain well above those from last year and the three-year average. This trend is exemplified by Mekelle of Tigray Region, where maize and sorghum prices declined month-on-month by 28 percent and 10 percent, respectively; however, the price of white sorghum in November was still 8 percent higher than last year and 52 percent higher than the three-year average.
However, there are anomalies to the general seasonal trend in month-on-month food prices. In Afar, maize prices significantly increased month-on-month due to a local decline in grain supply to the market, high transportation costs, and the inflation of production costs. At the Logia marketplace, maize prices in November had risen by nearly 50 percent compared to November of last year and nearly 135 percent higher than the three-year average.
In Somali Region, the market spike observed between mid to late 2023 during the pause of food assistance led food prices to increase in response to rising market demand. While the pause of food assistance has now ended, cereal prices in November were more than double that recorded in November of last year and the three-year average. In Chereti market, for example, the price of maize in November was nearly 90 percent higher than last year and over 160 percent higher than the three-year average.
Livestock supply and prices: Livestock market supply and prices have increased across much of the country compared to previous years due to good body conditions and inflationary market pressure, including in the pastoral areas of Afar and Somali regions. In Logia of Afar, goat prices were nearly 25 percent higher in November compared to the same time last year, and over 55 percent higher than the three-year average. Rising livestock prices have helped to partially restore the purchasing power of pastoral households, but the terms of trade still range from slightly to significantly below normal. In Gode of Somali Region, the income from a goat sale could buy about 70 kgs of maize in November, which was similar to the terms of trade at the same time last year but 9 percent lower than the three-year average. Regardless, many pastoralists in the south and southeast still have limited to no livestock following the drought, and they are therefore unable to access this source of income. Meanwhile, the sale of one goat in Logia, for instance, could purchase around 44 kilograms (kgs) of maize in November, which provided the average family of seven with a maximum of 13 days of food, compared to around 50 to 60 kgs in November last year and the three-year average of around 70 kgs (Figure 5).
Areas affected by conflict and insecurity are an exception to the national trend. This is particularly the case in the border region areas of Amhara, Afar, and Tigray. In these locations, livestock prices have exhibited a declining trend since June 2023 due to the adverse impacts of insecurity on demand for livestock.
Source link : https://fews.net/east-africa/ethiopia/food-security-outlook-update/december-2023
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Publish date : 2023-12-31 08:00:00
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