T
he 2024 projection for Africa contains a variety of risks and opportunities. The issues that are expected to be most prominent in Africa during this year are the elections scheduled for 2024 in Africa, the security of the Sahel region, the geopolitics of the Red Sea, the risks posed by terrorist organizations across the continent, and economic growth and food security. As an important crossroads in the transformation of the global system, Africa’s role is likely to increase in 2024.
The year 2024 is projected to be a test for democracy for almost half of the world. Forty countries, 3.2 billion people, and economies with a combined GDP of $44.2 trillion will go to the polls. Africa will play a major role in this test as elections will be held in countries covering a third of Africa and affecting more than 335 million people. South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia, Mauritius, Comoros, Rwanda, Ghana, Burkina Faso, South Sudan, Chad, Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Mauritania, Tunisia, and Algeria will hold elections in 2024. Somalia’s Somaliland will also hold elections in 2024.
South Africa, Algeria, and Ghana stand out. These countries, especially South Africa and Algeria, have stronger economies than others in Africa, and the political risk is likely to be high. On the other hand, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad are due to hold presidential elections in 2024, creating an alternative corridor of military rule in the Sahel. The current conflicts in Sudan are likely to spill over into Chad. There is also a serious risk that the ongoing conflict in Sudan will continue to affect the region and increase instability.
The social tensions, refugee movements, and possible armed conflicts that will result from the elections have the potential to increase tensions in the region. Meanwhile, the process is unlikely to bring democratic change, given the control of state institutions by candidates backed by military juntas. South Sudan is a relatively new state and a census has yet to be conducted; the country is scheduled to have the last election of 2024, but it is very likely that it will be postponed for 2025.
Source link : https://politicstoday.org/african-geopolitics-risks-and-opportunities/
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Publish date : 2024-01-29 08:00:00
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