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Highlights
• Southern Africa is currently under the influence of El Niño patterns. These patterns are associated with below-average rainfall for most of the region, which are likely to lead to a below-average harvest. Tanzania, however, follows the East Africa rainfall patterns and thus above-average rainfall is expected;
• The rainy season so far has been marked by a delayed onset, due to a dry spell in November, and irregular rainfall, alternating between wetter and drier periods. While October brought considerable rainfall, the distribution was too concentrated for meaningful planting in many countries. From November a dry spell commenced and lasted until early December in the southeast of the region. Favourable rains in December and early January have provided sought-after relief from the dry conditions and allowed for the start of planting. The start of January has brought a return to dry conditions;
• Vegetation coverage has improved compared to last month thanks to December rainfall. Parts of Tanzania, South Africa, Angola, Mozambique and Republic of Congo are showing above average vegetation, whereas below average vegetation is observed in large parts of Namibia, Botswana and Madagascar;
• The short-range outlook indicates a return to dry conditions in the southern part of the region, in particular Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia and Madagascar, and deficits in Malawi and Zambia too. February and early March rainfall is critical for the outcomes of the harvest and will be monitored carefully. The long-range outlook indicates the region is still expected to receive below average rainfall overall, this is particularly likely in areas of Namibia, South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique;
• The cyclone season in the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) has begun with the first named tropical storm, Alvaro, making landfall on Madagascar, affecting 33,000 people, displacing 17,000 and causing 19 deaths. While below average cyclonic activity is expected overall, the forecast for cyclonic activity in the vicinity of Madagascar is near normal to above normal. Cyclonic activity is being monitored closely in the Southern Africa region to inform both emergency response and longerterm food security impacts related to loss of livelihoods;
• Based on the latest available data, the areas to watch are southern Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Namibia and southern Madagascar. Malawi and Zambia may also be of concern.
Source link : https://reliefweb.int/report/madagascar/wfp-southern-africa-seasonal-monitor-2-january-2024
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Publish date : 2024-01-19 08:00:00
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